Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

We are in the midst of an excellent trading match in the tennis. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has had the kitchen sink (or as we are in France, le sink de la kitchen) thrown at him and he survives. 2 sets down. 5-3 2nd set he managed to blow set point on serve. He won a tie breaker where his opponent traded as low as 1.53. I have a green screen here, do you? Say yes! This is what it is all about. Tsonga must win when 2-0 down. He must win the tie-breaker. Faith in the pre-match odds. He was sitting at comfortable odds of 1.28 from which I traded out and is now back up to 1.83 odds!
More tennis today dominates what is a poor football coupon. We have some International Friendlies. The Under 20 World Cup is a mine field. And we have the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

20:30 - Italy v San Marino - 1.01

  • Do not dismiss these odds. Value can be found in the correct score markets. Think win to nil. I would begin at 4-0 as this is a friendly. I would include 7-0 and 9-0 in case Italy go to town.
  • Italy of course should be leading at halftime so if 0-0 after 20 minutes, get involved.

16:30 - VPS v HIFK - 1.98 VPS

  • 0-1 VPS in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 10th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

VPS

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Conceded in last 4 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only home win v 1st and 2-2 v 2nd.

HIFK

  • Only 1 win.
  • 0-0, 3-3 and 2-1 loss away.
  • Only scored 2+ goals once in a match and still did not win.
  • No win v top 6.

Conclusions

  • If VPS are beating 8th and lower AWAY from home, logic suggests with home advantage they should cope with 10th.
  • That is how I will play this. Note HIFK have only 1 win and rarely score 2 goals so lay them if they score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v SJK - 1.57 HJK

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 5th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HJK

  • 4 clean sheets in a row but 2 0-0's in a row. I do expect this sequence will end sooner than later. It is difficult to sustain a 0-0 sequence.
  • 5-2-1-2 goals scored at home so a hope.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not conceded first half at home.
  • Led at halftime in all 4 home matches.

SJK

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets ended with 2 1-1 draws.
  • 1-0-1 scored last 3 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Conceded all away.
  • Drew away with 2nd and beat 3rd, lost to 6th and 11th away.

Conclusions

  • I will be opposing the 0-0 today as I did last match.
  • SJK have conceded in all aways and scored in all bar 1 so a hope today both teams score. HJK are likely to score first and first half and lead first half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay SJK if SJK score draw.

16:30 - IFK Mariehamn v RoPS - 1.65 IFK

  • 0-0 and 1-1 the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

IFK

  • 5 1-1 draws this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 8 of 10 home goals scored 2nd half.
  • Only wins v bottom 2 teams.

RoPS

  • No draw this season.
  • 3 defeats and a win in 4 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Like IFK, have beaten the bottom 2 at home. Other wins? 6th at home and 7th away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. We should really expect 2 goals at least today.
  • We have a team with 5 draws v a team with no draws. Who will out? Lay the late draw and hope RoPS continue their draw-less season?
  • IFK are strong 2nd half goal scorers. Note that if 0-0 at halftime or if RoPS lead at halftime.

16:30 - JJK v KuPS - 1.72 KuPS

  • 9-1 KuPS in the cup recently.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. JJK look newly promoted.

JJK

  • Only win came last home match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No home draw.
  • 10 of 12 home goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 3 home defeats v top 4 so defeat expected today.

KuPS

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • 2-4-2-1 scored away with 3 wins and a draw.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only away loss v 1st in the league.

Conclusions

  • I would have expected KuPs's odds to be shorter.
  • They should score 2 goals at least today. JJK are likely to score but it likely to be in defeat if their losing pattern v top 4 at home continues.
  • Note JJK concede heavily 2nd half so I would lay JJK if they lead or draw halftime or at least expect them to concede 2nd half if clean sheet at halftime.

16:30 - Ilves v PS Kemi - 1.57 Ilves

  • 1-1 and 2-0 Ilves in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 11th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Ilves

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Only draw first match of season.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • All home matches had 2 or 3 goals.
  • Not played bottom 3 at home but lost away to 12th.

PS Kemi

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Won last away match.
  • Only clean sheet and draw was 1st match of the season.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Lost away to 8th and 9th conceding 3 goals but beat 4th away scoring 3 goals!

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Note Ilves matches have had 2 or 3 goals in total so if 0-0 for a while, maybe back over 2.5 goals.
  • I would have to fancy Ilves today.

French Open

Yesterday was a great lesson in the LAY to BACK trade. Take an opposing view to the market, and profit from a hoped drifting in the odds.
As I said at the introduction, Tsonga I hope presented you with the greenest of green screens. We also saw Andy Murray who may be back up and running after 2 consecutive pre-French Open defeats.
It is doubles day today but there are some singles. Chan/Hingis as a doubles partnership must be near top seeds -likely though these markets will be illiquid for trading.

Borna Coric v Steve Johnson - 1.55 Borna

  • 48th v 25th and the higher ranked player is favourite.
  • No head to heads.
  • A 5 setter for Steve Johnson in his opener and an easier 3 setter for Coric (first set was a tie breaker).
  • Coric is one of the 'next gen' players, along with Zverev, Thiem who are set to dominate as the current top 4 have. Coric showed his worth in Madrid in reaching the quarter finals.
  • Johnson won the Houston tournament. A loss to Mahut in Miami is a worry. Mahut ain't all that, girlfriend.
  • I would favour Coric today and back him if his odds exceed evens (2.00) in play.
  • I would also lay any player who may lead 2-0/0-2 in sets.

Dominic Thiem v Simone Bolelli - 1.06 Thiem

  • 9th v 536th in the rankings.
  • 2 tight tie breaker set wins for Thiem in their sole 2015 head to head.
  • Thiem has advertised his clay credentials with 2 finals (albeit losses to Nadal) and then a quarter final win over Nadal in Rome. That is why I backed Thiem pre-tournament in the outright winners market.
  • I expect a 3-0 today and I only hope for a first set tie breaker as that could bump Thiem's odds up to a backable position.
  • For you contrarians, I would encourage laying of 1.1 players and lower as a matter of routine. Unlikely we will see a payout today though but yesterday advertised well that pre match odds can rise in-play.

Mattek-Sands v Kvitova - 1.43 Kvitova

  • 120th v 15th in the rankings. With such a differential you'd have thought Kvitova's odds would be shorter. Has Sands been injured?
  • Head to heads from 2011 are irrelevant.
  • Sands has had to go through qualifying to get here. In Madrid and Rome, she failed to get through qualifying. This is not a good advert for her clay credentials.
  • She lost to the likes of Heather Watson and Lucic-Baroni (the latter crashing out 1st round here) so the form is not good.
  • Final, Quarter Final, Final, Final for Kvitova prior to this French Open.
  • There must be a reason for the market to be the way it is. It does look straightforward to me. I am with Kvitova and will back her at higher odds if they appear here today.

Sergiy Stakhovsky v David Goffin - 1.05 Goffin

  • 101st v 10th.
  • 4 set Goffin win Aussie Open 2016 and Sergiy retired most recent head to head.
  • Sergiy won the opening set in both head to heads. Lay Goffin at 1.06 in the hope this pattern continues?
  • I would then switch to Goffin if Goff loses first set. He tends to win the next 2!

Sam Stosur v Kirsten Flipkens - 1.19 Stosur

  • 18th v 93rd.
  • Last head to head was 2014 so not really relevant.
  • Sam won in Strasbourg so must be fancied to continue that momentum today.
  • There is nothing in Flipkens recent form to suggest Flip flips a 2-0 set win so I must oppose her if she wins first set.
  • We are likely to see a pattern if Sam wins first set of a closing in of the ranks from Flipkens and a very tight 2nd set. It happened with Halep yesterday. So lay Sam if Sam wins first set in the hope of a fight 2nd set.

Venus Williams v Kurumi Nara - 1.14 Venus

  • 12th v 95th.
  • Nara won the most recent head to head in 2 sets when Venus was 1.25 odds so this flags up the 1.14 odds as being too short. Would you agree?
  • Nara has been in Asia prior to the French Open, the last 2 events were 100K events.
  • Venus reached the quarter finals in Roma.
  • I am going to lay Venus at 1.15 today in the hope Nara remembers that she has the beating of Williams.
  • Watch out for a potential tie breaker 2nd set if Venus wins the first. I would lay Venus if she wins first set too!!

Catherine Bellis v Kiki Bertens (Beefy) - 1.23 Bertens

  • 58th v 20th. I have backed Beefy pre tournament in the outright winners market.
  • Straight sets Beefy in over Bellis in Rome on clay is recent and should be a good template for today.
  • Semi finalist in Rome, and winner in Nurnberg, I expect a Beefy win. She did lose first set in the first round but won the next 2.
  • We may see nerves first set. I am with her throughout though today.

Ivo Karlovic v Zeballos - 1.7 Zeballos

  • 22nd v 84th and the higher ranked player as favourite.
  • An epic 5 setter in 2017 suggests this will not be Zeballos's highest odds in this match.
  • 22-20 last match.
  • Karlovic is as one dimensional as they come. If his serve clicks he will be in tie breakers and it's a toss of a coin there. He beat Agut in 3 tie breaker sets recently but the better players have him sussed. Dimitrov and Goffin won in straight sets.
  • Zeballos reached the semi finals on clay in Barcelona and that serves as a warning shot to Ivo.
  • I would suspect a 5 setter today so lay any leader 2-0 up. I would lay the player 2-1 up if that occurs too.

Jaoa Sousa v Novak Djokovic - 1.03 Novak

  • Andre Agassi (minus mullet) is in Novak's musical 'coaches' chair in the hope of returning that spark to the Serb's game.
  • 37th v 2nd.
  • 3-0 Novak and a 2016 head to heads straight sets win.
  • This should be routine. Sousa is in poor form. That said, remember Tsonga was 1.03 and look at the pig's ear he is making of his match! I must lay at 1.04 and hope Novak takes his eye off the ball.

Tommy Robredo v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.2 Dimitrov

  • 288th v 12th.
  • Tommy Robredo has won the last 2 head to heads in 2015 and 2016 with the first 2 sets going 6-4 1-6!!
  • Dimitrov was a similarly priced favourite.
  • This suggests a lay of Dimitrov today at 1.21 or a lay of Robredo if Robredo wins the first set
  • In Monte Carlo Grigor lost to Struff and that is a poor form line. Yes he lost to Thiem and Del Potro, but Struff advertised poor form last week and yesterday.
  • 20th, 57th, 321st are the players to beat our Tommy recently.
  • He beat 43rd ranked Daniel Evans in the first round here in France.
  • I will stick with my original diagnosis. Lay Dimitrov off the bat. Hope the pattern of Robredo winning first set, and losing the next, as in recent head to heads continues.

Stefano Napolitano v Diego Schwartzmann - 1.19 Diego.

  • 172nd v 34th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Diego struggled as a 1.14 fav last match. 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2. This suggests already that 1.2 is too short to back and must be layed.
  • Napolitano surprised a few with a win over an in-form Mischa Zverev in his first round.
  • He has come through qualifying (2 3 set wins) and a 4 set win yesterday.
  • This tells us Napolitano is layable if he wins the first set or leads 2-0. Let's hope for more fun from Diego. You have to decide whether you are with Diego regardless of what happens (as per Rublev match).

Garbine Muguruza v Anett Kontavit - 1.52 Garb

  • 6th v 73rd.
  • Kontavit won in 3 sets in 2017 head to head - she lost the first set and the 2nd set was a tie breaker.
  • That could be a pattern today. We have seen the underdog dig in 2nd set if losing the first. It is the equivalent of the men's fight back from 2-0 to 2-1. If they don't win, they are out!
  • Muguruza you recall was layable as low as 1.02 against Schiavone and her odds rose to 1.15 if I remember for a nice trade out.
  • Kontaveit showed in Rome, in beating Petkovic, Kerber, Lucic-Baroni (although 2 of those 3 are already out of the French open and so have not franked the form), that she is adept on clay.
  • This could be a lay the first set winner match for me.

Ons Jabeur v Dominicka Cibulkova - 1.31 Cibul

  • 109th v 4th. I was surprised that Dom was 4th.
  • Jabeur the Hut has gone through qualifying and was fav in beating Bogdan.
  • She tends to play 60K events and needs qualifiers to get into main tour events.
  • For 4th in the world Cibulkova is showing poor form. Round of 16 Miami,round of 32 Madrid, round of 32 Rome.
  • She beat 61st ranking 6-2 6-1 first round here and plays 109th today.
  • Which Cibulkova turns up today? No strong trading angle here.

Oceane Dodin v Svetlana Kuznetzova - 1.27 Svetlana

  • 62nd v 9th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Dodin is a bit hit and miss. A great Madrid saw here beat Petkovic, Cibulkova,and lose to 19th ranked in the round of 16. Then in Rome she failed to get out of the qualifiers losing to Petkovic, who she beat in Madrid!
  • With 4 3 set matches in 5, this tells me Dodin is layable if she wins the first set.
  • Kuznetsova went one better in Madrid and lost to the same player who beat Dodin. Round of 16 only in Rome.
  • I will stick to laying Dodin if Dodin wins the first set. I cannot see a 2-0 Dodin today.

Benjamin Bonzi v Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.07 Ramos

  • 334th v 19th.
  • Bonzi is a futures and Challenger player so tough to gauge his form.
  • Ramos reached the final in Monte Carlo, lost to Murray in the quarters in Barcelona.
  • Bonzi's first round opponent was retired.
  • Ramos should be winning 3-0 so react if anything else.