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Review of yesterday's matches.

Ukraine U21 were absolutely dominant yesterday. Not a sniff of a DRT. I did think that the Qatar Youth were vulnerable yesterday and they were USA Youth scored to make it 1-0 after 8 minutes. Done and dusted DRT wise. 4-0 to Molde yesterday. Remember what I say about 1.12 shots. Goals before halftime and 3/4 goals expected. Spot on from Molde. Scully would be delighted. Sillamaie ended 0-0.  i layed the halftime 0-0 late on. No joy. I layed the late 0-0 and I mean late! 91st minute. 0-0 it ended. But it is matches like these, where a team is a 1.1 shot, which will produce the big profits as a 0-0 is as rare as an honest conservative politician. So much for a tight one in the Bologna match. 1-2 to Avellino at halftime and 2-3 at fulltime. France Youth beat Costa Rica Youth 2-1 and needed a penalty to secure the 2nd goal. Backing 2-2 in the Infonet match was looking good until Paide made it 1-3. The match ended 2-3 but the goals progression was not in keeping with a 2-2 trade. We needed a 2-2 then 2-3 rather than a 1-3 then 2-3. Great call though. I thought there'd be goals. In the tennis, the Bryan Brothers won in 3 sets. No real trades there as they lost the 2nd set and not the 1st.  Ana Ivanovic was my standout bet of the day and I personally layed Elina 2-0 set betting at a bit too high 6.4. I thought that was a safe lay as Ana won 5-0 in head to heads and Elina had been really battling in her wins. 2-0 it ended to Ana. I did as I wrote. I layed Safarova winning the first set in a tie breaker. Alas, she won the 2nd set. But looking back on it, I would still have layed her after a 1st set tie breaker so late in the French Open. The Nishikori v Tsonga match was a superb trading match. I waited and saw Tsonga demolish Kei 1st set and 2nd set. Then I layed Tsonga at 1.13. That's the shortest I got. I am not sure whether it was the shortest price available. Cue the Nishikori come back, winning the next 2 sets. This I would equate to the underdog taking a 0-2 lead away from home by halftime. It ain't over! Stan Wawrinka beat Federer in 3 straight sets, the last a 7-6. I have to admit I missed all of this match somehow but would have layed Stan 1-0 up and 2-0 up and lost! On to today...

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

2pm - Portugal U19 v Spain U19  - 1.81 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the UEFA U19 Championship so is not a friendly. If the Spanish nippers are as effective as their u21 and 1st team, then 1.81 is a nice price!
  • This match is being played in Tblisi so there is no home advantage.
  • The last time these 2 met was in 2013 when Spain won 1-0
  • Portugal u21 are pretty good at this level. 2-4-2-6-3 scored in their last 5 wins, although they conceded in each match.
  • Spain's only recent loss was v Germany u19. Against the teams Portugal U21 scored 6 and 3 against, Spain u19 scored 5 and 4.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little form to go on. Both teams are spanking the same opponents Turkey u19 and Georgia u19 so there are no clues there. The market has Spain u19 as tentative favourites.
  • I do think Portugal u19 might concede as they have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches so that might be an angle in today? Lay Pork and Cheese if they score first?
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4:15pm - Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis  - 1.62 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a Champions League play-off between 4 teams it looks like. Here are the results so far :- 31.05.2015 18:30 Panathinaikos 2-0 PAOK Salonica 16:15 Asteras Tripoli 1-0 Atromitos FC 27.05.2015 17:30 PAOK Salonica 0-1 Panathinaikos 15:15 Atromitos FC 0-0 Asteras Tripoli 24.05.2015 18:30 Panathinaikos 2-0 Atromitos FC 16:15 PAOK Salonica 0-0 Asteras Tripoli 20.05.2015 18:30 Atromitos FC 1-1 PAOK Salonica 16:15 Asteras Tripoli 0-4 Panathinaikos
  • With 14 points from 4 games (not sure if this is 3 points for a win?), it seems Panathanaikos have done enough to win the Champions League spot in this league of 4 play-off.
  • With the 2nd and 3rd spots for the Europa League still up for grabs, Asteras need a win today in the penultimate match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The points scoring is a mystery to me. How a team with 4 wins can have 14 points is beyond me? Hyper-inflation maybe?
  • At any rate this should be a dead rubber really for a Panathanaikos side who have already it seems secured the Champions League spot by finishing first. A 0-4 win against Asteras Tripolis says everything about who is the better side here.
  • Favour Panathanaikos as obviously the better side, despite not apparently needing the win?
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4:30pm - HJK Helsinki v Ilves  - 1.21 home

Standout Stats

  • The most recent head to heads have been tight.
  • 0-0, 1-1 and 1-0. The market expects a better HJK performance today.
  • This is 1st v 11th in the Finnish top division. Do note that HJK have played 2 matches and sometimes 3 matches more than other Finnish league teams so their position is false at the moment.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss this season was v KuPS who they drew 1-1 with last match at home.
  • That ended a run of 5 consecutive wins at home keeping 5 clean sheets
  • Failed to score in only 1 match
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ilves

  • Have conceded in their last 5 away matches .
  • Failed to score in their last 2 away.
  • 4 losses and a 2-3 win away this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet this season
  • 80% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Home team favoured in head to heads and on recent form. Head to heads though suggest a tight match.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay the 0-0 2nd half. HJK have a habit for away goals.
  • Ilves are likely to concede so that compounds laying the 0-0 late on.
  • 1-0, 2-0 possible home scoreline if HJK keep clean sheets again.
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6pm - Orebro v Helsingborgs  - 2.16 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 9th in the Swedish Allsvenskan

Orebro

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches
  • Won their last 2 home matches
  • Unbeaten in 3 home matches
  • Only 1 clean sheet
  • No 0-0 at halftime this season

Helsingborgs

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • 4 match away losing streak
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • All away losses recently v current top 6 suggests an easier assignment today?
  • Unbeaten currently v teams below them in the league.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score could be on here. Helsingborg's poor recent form has come v top teams away and their recent losing streak could end today v weaker opponents. I would lay Orebro then if Orebro score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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6pm - Brabrand v Marienlyst  - 1.71 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 and 1-0 wins for Marienlyst in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 2nd in the Danish 2nd division west (from memory!)
  • 4 matches remain this season and Marienlyst have a chance of a title win.

Brabrand

  • Only 1 win in 7
  • Only 1 win in 6 at home
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • 69% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

Marienlyst

  • Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 5 matches,
  • Only 4 defeats all season, but 3 of those defeats came in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches this season.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away and last 9 overall.
  • 73% over 2.5 goals all season
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Marienlyst tighten the gap at the top, with only 4 matches remaining, with a win here today. They are, though likely to concede as that is a recent negative habit. It is a match therefore where I think it could be both teams to score.
  • Brabrand are going through a sticky patch so I would lay them if they scored first today and expect Marienlyst not to lose.
  • A high over 2.5 goals count suggests that we back over 2.5 goals 2nd half if the match is 0-0 at halftime
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6pm - Levanger v Rosenborg  - 1.08 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 recent head to heads, in the cup and a friendly saw Rosenborg win 1-4 and 5-2. As you know, sub 1.1 odds suggests this kind of a goal haul for the favourite today.
  • Levanger are 11th in the 1. Division in Norway. Rosenborg lead the Norwegian Eliteserien but as regular readers know, Rosenborg have been dodgy betting propositions at odds on this season. A 1-1 last time out a prime example. This is, though, the cup and they do play a mediocre team from a poorer league.
  • A hope for redemption today?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds suggests 4/5 goals from Rosenborg as the recent head to heads showed , albeit the last was a friendly.
  • 1.08 also suggests laying the 0-0 halftime score particularly if 0-0 for 15-20 minutes.
  • The only niggles with the above? The fact Rosenborg are away from home.
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6:05pm - Gefle v Malmo FF  - 1.64 away

Standout Stats

  • The last 4 head to heads have favoured the home side. 2-0 and 0-0 in the last 2 Gefle head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 4th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Gefle

  • Only 5 wins this season, 3 have come in their last 4 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches.
  • 2 0-0 draws and 2 wins in their last 4 home matches.

Malmo

  • No win in 3 away matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches
  • Only 2 defeats this season, came in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Have struggled away from home. 3-3, 2-2, 2-1 loss in the last 3 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Still early on in the season and no ultra-strong patterns yet. Malmo have not won their last 3 away, in fact they have conceded 2 in their last 3 away. Gefle are solid at home, keeping 2 clean sheets in the last 2 head to heads and 4 clean sheets this season.
  • Dare we lay Malmo at 1.64? Gefle should put up firm resistance and with them conceding 2 regularly, they might concede first today to a side keeping clean sheets?
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6:20pm - Ostersunds FK v Degerfors  - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0 Degerfors, 1-2 Degefors, 2-2 and 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 5th in the Swedish Superettan after 11 matches.

Ostersunds

  • 5 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten this season.
  • WDWDW (W=Win, D=Draw) in their last 5 at home.
  • Scored in all matches
  • 4-2-1-2-3-2 scored in recent matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Scored 6 goals immediately in the 2nd half at home.

Degerfors

  • failed to score in their last 2 away, last match was a 0-0
  • 2 consecutive draws
  • 2 draws this season so far v teams above them in the league.
  • 7 first half and 1 2nd half goals scored away. If they are to score, then more likely 1st half hour .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Degerfors are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads but the market does not expect that today. Ostersunds have the season long form for sure and are scoring 2+ goals recently.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score. If Degefors score it is more likely to be first half. Ostersunds score a load 2nd half first thing so if losing at halftime, lay Degefors.
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6:30pm - Galatasaray v Bursaspor  - 2.42 home

Standout Stats

  • Galatasary are unbeaten in their last 8 head to heads.
  • they have scored 2+ goals in each of the last 5 matches.
  • Bursaspor have scored 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
  • Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 Galatasary cup matches.
  • This looks like being a single leg match.
  • 4-2, 0-2, 3-1, 4-1, 4-0, 4-1 for Galatasary in recent home cup matches.
  • only 1 loss in 9 cup matches for Bursaspor was against Fenerbahce
  • 1-3-1-3 scored in their last 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins away in the cup for Bursaspor 2-3, 0-5, 2-3, 0-3

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams are likely to score today in what could be a goal laden match.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in the hope that there will be goals.
  • Lay Bursaspor if they score first in the hope that Galatasary score 2+ goals.
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6:30pm - PAOK v Atromitos  - 1.99 home

Standout Stats

  • this looks like the Greek Super League play-off match.
  • This is a Champions League play-off between 4 teams it looks like.
  • Here are the results so far :-
  • 31.05.2015 18:30 Panathinaikos 2-0 PAOK Salonica 16:15 Asteras Tripoli 1-0 Atromitos FC 27.05.2015 17:30 PAOK Salonica 0-1 Panathinaikos 15:15 Atromitos FC 0-0 Asteras Tripoli 24.05.2015 18:30 Panathinaikos 2-0 Atromitos FC 16:15 PAOK Salonica 0-0 Asteras Tripoli 20.05.2015 18:30 Atromitos FC 1-1 PAOK Salonica 16:15 Asteras Tripoli 0-4 Panathinaikos
  • With PAOK only drawing 1 match and losing 3, the onus is on them to get a positive result. Atromitos have 2 draws and 2 losses so are slightly ahead of PAOK> Panathanaikos have 4 wins out of 4, and Asteras a win and 3 draws.
  • In this league of 4, the winner enters the Champions League, 2nd place enters the Europa League as does 3rd place. So there is plenty to play for between PAOK and Atromitos today for what looks like 3rd place

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both of these sides need a win. It was a 1-1 draw the last time these 2 met on the 20th May. Atromitos scored first. Atromitos must win really today . There is another round of matches on the 7th June .
  • No strong angles in for me.
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7:30pm - Austria Vienna v Red Bull Salzburg  - 1.5 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Austrian Cup.
  • both teams have scored in their last 4 matches.
  • 2-4 Salzburg, 3-1 Salzburg, 1-1.
  • Both teams are Bundesliga sides.

Austria Vienna

  • 5 consecutive wins to nil in the cup came away from home.
  • no draw in 19 matches in the cup.
  • 2 consecutive losses at home in the cup

Red Bull Salzburg

  • Unbeaten in 12 matches in all competitions.
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches
  • Only 1 loss in 22 cup matches.
  • 19 of 22 cup matches were wins.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score as per head to heads? And Red Bull not to lose?
  • Lay Austria Vienna if they score first.
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7:30pm - Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan  - 1.6 away

Standout Stats

  • Lech Poznan are undefeated in the last 8 head to heads.
  • 0-1, 0-3, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads at Gornik
  • Rather like Greece this is what's called the Championship Group play-offs. Lech Poznan lead the group with 4 wins and a loss in the play-offs. Gornik are 7th in the group of 8, with only 1 win. The 1st placed gains the Champions League spot, the next 3 a Europa League berth.
  • Here are the results to date.
  • 31.05.2015 17:00 Lech Poznan 1-0 Pogon Szczecin 14:30 Jagiellonia 3-2 Gornik Zabrze 14:30 Legia Warszawa 1-0 Wisla Krakow 30.05.2015 19:30 Slask Wroclaw 1-0 Lechia Gdansk 24.05.2015 17:00 Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Lech Poznan 23.05.2015 19:30 Jagiellonia 2-1 Wisla Krakow 17:00 Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa 14:30 Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Gornik Zabrze 20.05.2015 19:30 Legia Warszawa 1-0 Jagiellonia 19:30 Wisla Krakow 2-2 Pogon Szczecin 17:00 Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lechia Gdansk 17:00 Lech Poznan 3-0 Slask Wroclaw
  • Only 1 match away for Lech Poznan recently was a 1-2 win.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Obviously Lech Poznan are the better team here.  There are 2 matches remaining in this play-off. Today's and a set on 7th June.
  • If Gornik win their remaining 2 matches and results go their way, they could find themselves in a Europa League spot.
  • A must win for Lech I think with legia Warsaw only a point behind and Jagiellonia 4 points behind.  I cannot see Lech losing on form and will enter the match with that in mind.
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7:30pm - San Marino U21 v Georgia U21  - 1.1 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a UEFA U21 Championship match , so not a friendly.
  • No recent head to heads between these 2.
  • Only 1 win since June 2006 for San Marino was against Wales, a 1-0 in September 2013.
  • They failed to score in 8 matches surrounding this result.
  • A recent 0-0 with Finland u21 as well.
  • A strange side are Georgia U21. On the one hand, they beat Netherlands 0-1 and on the other, get beaten 0-3 at home to Luxembourg u21. What gives?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Georgia u21 it seems are a slight level up from San Marino u21 , as shown by their 2-1 wins over Estonia u21. They should beat San Marino who simply find it hard to score.
  • 1.1 as you know suggests goals before halftime and 3/4 goals from Georgia u21.The most they have scored since 2009 though has been 4.
French Open Timea Bacsinszky v Alison Van Uytvanck 13:00 1.22  Timea 24th v 93rd in the World. Strange to see a 93rd ranked player this deep into a Grand Slam No head to heads. I think Kvitova retired last match so Timea , at 1-1 , was lucky there . Prior to that, 3 consecutive 2-0 set wins. Alison has dropped only 1 set and is making the most of a very lucky 7-6 7-6 escape in the first round. Both players are yet to meet a top dog so will eye this as an opportunity to progress one step further. I have no ultra strong angle in here. At first glance, 1.22 for Timea is a tad too short for me. Obviously Alison has some talent which is why she is where she is. Serena Williams v Sara Errani 13:00 1.12 Serena 1st v 17th in the world, and watching Mike Tyson's twin brother in action, it has certainly not been plain sailing. You'll recall I mentioned to lay Serena at 1.03 and that profited as he lost the first set! Serena has dropped the first set in his last 3 matches now, and I mentioned that v Sloan Stephens. Be prepared for the usual pattern today. Serena drops the first set, wins the next 2! That's an angle in. 1.39 is too short for 2-0 set betting too and could be layed, more so if Serena wins the first set or breaks early. Tough to quantify who Errani has beaten. I did expect a tougher match v Goerges but Sara came through 2-0. Odds are far too short for Serena for me, given the struggles and where we are in this Tournament. Andy Murray v David Ferrer 14:30 1.57  Murray A rare sight. The Terrier is odds against. 3rd v 8th in the World. 9-6 to Murray in head to heads. Andy has won 4 of the last 5 head to heads. He won in the Final in Austria in 2014 and Semi's in Valencia in 2014. In Austria, Ferrer won a set. In valencia, one of the sets was 7-5. Andy has dropped a set in 2 of his last 3 matches. Ferrer had a scare v retired Bolelli at 2-2 but beat Cilic 3-0 in a match I thought would be tighter as Cilic is a top 10 player. Instinctively I'd lay Murray 3-0 if he wins the first set. I would do the same Ferrer. This is the best player these 2 have met so far. Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal 14:30 1.39 Novak 1st v 7th in the World. 20-23 head to heads in Rafa's favour. Nadal dropped his only set when 2-0 up v Jack Sock. Novak has 3-0 sets all the way so far. Novak has won 5 of the last 6 head to heads.Rafa won here last year in the Final dropping the first set, but winning the next 3. Lay 3-0 both players? Although Nadal 3-0 is 16.5 to lay which is too high. Lay Novak 3-0 at 4.1?