Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Hoffenheim beating Bayern was the only shock of the night. Leicester correct score nailed and a few other trades profited in the live chat. I'll be tweeting @drtclub at 19:00. See you there.

18:00 - Metz v Lyon - 1.56 Lyon

  • 5-0 Lyon win earlier this year.
  • This is 14th v 4th in French Ligue 1. A top 3 spot is mathematically achievable for Lyon but will require 100% wins from now on and for 2nd and 3rd to effectively keep losing. Ain't gonna happen!
  • Metz are 7 points shy of relegation.

Metz 100% stats

  • Not beaten top 4.

Metz other stats

  • Only 4 wins in 16 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 9 at home - a surprise to me!
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Last home defeat was 23rd October.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 11 teams sees 4 draws.

Lyon other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 22 matches at halftime came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Ooor away form - very bitty losing to the likes of 16th, 17th and 19th away. Only 1 away win v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Look out for potential Lyon struggles today. Metz are unbeaten in 9 at home and Lyon have very bitty away form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score based on Lyon.
  • Speculators might want to lay Lyon if Lyon score first. It may not come off but you'll get short odds lay and a Metz side you know are solid at home.

18:30 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.27 Barcelona

  • 1-2 Barcelona last head to head. Barca had to come from behind.
  • This is 2nd v 4th. A critical match for Barcelona to win.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil.

Barcelona other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals.
  • In 8 of their last 9 matches, we see 2-2-1-0-4-2-1-4-1 goals before halftime.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • Scored and conceded all matches v top 6.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil.

Sevilla other stats

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away.
  • Scored in last 14 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 9.
  • 12 goals scored last 15 mins away.

Conclusions

  • We normally see competitive matches with Sevilla and the big 2.
  • Both teams could score. I hope Sevilla scores first as then we have an angle. Barcelona have scored plenty at home last 3 matches.
  • Will Messi play? Check team news.
  • Neither side has lost to nil so if a team leads to nil and late on, lay them.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Wolfsburg v Freiburg - 1.78 Wolfsburg

  • 4 consecutive Freiburg wins in head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 8th in the German Bundesliga.

Wolfsburg 100% stats

  • All wins at home by 1 goal.
  • No home match with exactly 2 goals or 4 goals.

Wolfsburg other stats

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Only 2 wins at home v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Stats are unreadable so I have halted research. Make life easier for yourself and focus on matches with ready trading angles.

19:00 - Mainz v RB Leipzig - 2.26 Leipzig

  • 3-1 to RB the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the German Bundesliga.

Mainz 100% stats

  • No win v top 7 home or away.
  • Scored and conceded in the 3 home matches v top 4.

Mainz other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.

RB 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

RB other stats

  • All 4 away defeats have come within the last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 5 of 6 matches home and away v bottom 4 sides.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today and Leipzig may nick it on form, as they have shown an ability to score 2 goals v bottom 4 sides. That will be my angle today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Mgladbach v Hertha Berlin - 1.86 Mgladbach

  • Very entertaining goal laden head to heads in which Mgladbach tend to win BUT Hertha did win the last head to head 3-0.
  • This is 10th v 5th in the German Bundesliga.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • No win v top 7.

Mgladbach other stats

  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hertha 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.

Hertha other stats

  • Only 4 wins in 13 matches came at home.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2 goals + in 8 of 10 away matches v top 13 sides.
  • 9 goals conceded just before halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Reliance on a team with no win v top 7 and playing 5th today?... That's what the market wants us to do.
  • I suppose the fact that Hertha have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of 10 matches away v top 13 is a reason to side with the home side.
  • Based on head to heads, we should see over 2.5 goals breeze in. Faith in that?

19:00 - Augsburg v Ingolstadt - 2.76 Augsburg

  • 0-2 Augsburg last head to head.
  • Another match with a favourite >2.4 odds so the market cannot split these 2 teams.
  • This is 16th v 17th in the German Bundesliga.
  • I will leave research here in what is a relegation six-pointer and form goes out the window!

19:00 - SV Darmstadt v Leverkusen - 1.76 Leverkusen

  • 1-2 and 3-2 Leverkusen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 11th in the German Bundesliga.
  • I will not research in-depth as Darmstadt are relegated. Leverkusen need points as the 3rd relegation spot is too close for comfort.
  • Only 4 wins for Darmstadt all came at home. ALL Darmstadt points were earned at home.
  • They have kept only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.
  • v 7th-13th at home, Darmstadt have 2 wins and 2 draws.
  • Leverkusen have no win in 5 matches.
  • They themselves have kept only 4 clean sheets. Poor stuff.
  • Leverkusen have failed to score only 5 times.
  • 2-3 and 1-3 wins away for Leverkusen v 15th and 16th.
  • Oh dear, these 2 are not in the best of form. We could see a tight match with Leverkusen likely to come out unbeaten. I won't discount the score draw. 1-3, 2-3 are correct scores for trading purposes if these 2 teams replicate their last match and Leverkusen replicate their recent away matches v 15th and 16th.

19:30 - Alaves v Osasuna - 1.47 Alaves

  • 0-1 Alaves the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 20th in Spanish La Liga.
  • Osasuna are relegated. Top 10 berth a possible for Alaves who are 18 points away from relegation.

Alaves 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Alaves other stats

  • Only loss in 8 at home was v Barcelona.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Osasuna other stats

  • No win in 21 matches.
  • Conceded last 25 matches.
  • 2 or more goals conceded in last 5 aways.

Conclusions

  • Alaves should remain unbeaten. Osasuna have scored but not won and a hope they score first. Remember they have conceded in their last 25 matches.

19:45 - Feyenoord v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.16 Feyenoord

  • Well, Go Ahead have won the last 2 head to heads 1-0.
  • This is 1st v 17th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v 10th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Feyenoord other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only 2 matches.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 14 home matches.
  • 3-6 goals scored at home v 13th and lower.
  • Score heavily at the end of each half at home.
  • Led in 12/14 at halftime at home.

Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats

  • Conceded in all aways.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 5.

Go Ahead Eagles other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 2-2 away v Heerenveen and 1-2 win away v Twente is eye-catching.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 7 defeats and a 1-0 win v Feyenoord in their matches v top 5 - makes the Feyenoord win look anomalous?
  • 14 goals conceded last 30 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • On form Feyenoord are likely to lead at halftime and win. I do, though, note Go Ahead's last 2 away matches which are quite eyecatching v 2 top 10 sides.
  • Both teams to score is strong for Go Ahead. but note they lost 3 away v top 5 without scoring so there is an argument that the top 5 are a step too far.
  • As to the odds, they suggest 3/4 goals from Feyenoord at the very least and indeed Feyenoord have scored 3-6 goals at home v 13th and lower.
  • Expectation for 3/4 from Feyenoord and Feyenoord have a high probability chance of leading at halftime. Anything else seems opposable.

19:45 - Celtic v Partick - 1.22 Celtic

  • You'll see me take my foot off the gas in a number of matches as April unfolds. Some teams have the title wrapped up and will really not sweat a defeat.
  • Motivation is with Partick who can claim a top 4 berth with continued wins.
  • 1-0 and 1-4 Celtic wins already over Partick.
  • Partick have lost all matches v top 3.

19:45 - Ajax v AZ Alkmaar - 1.36 Ajax

  • 2 Ajax wins and a 2-2 last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Ajax 100% stats

  • Scored in all home matches.
  • Unbeaten v top 6.
  • No 0-0.

Ajax other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat 12 at home.
  • 2 or more goals scored in each of last 5 home matches.

AZ 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 3 team.
  • No away 0-0.

AZ other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Another 'crunch time' match. AZ are yet to beat the top 3 so form suggests opposing an AZ lead.
  • Ajax have tended to be nervous in crunch matches and I seem to be referring to this part of the season in my conclusions. And it is important. Form can be thrown out of the window at this time of the year - on the run in!
  • I would enter the match expecting Ajax not to lose.

19:45 - Kilmarnock v Rangers - 1.71 Rangers

  • 1-1 and 3-0 Rangers in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 3rd in the Scottish Premier League (SPL).
  • 3 matches remain in the SPL and I cannot see how these 2 benefit from more points. Rangers cannot reach 2nd place. I suppose Kilmarnock need the points still.
  • Kilmarnock are yet to beat a top 3 team.
  • This is another match in which I will step away. Questionable motivation as the season ends. No top 2 spot available for Rangers.

19:45 - Newcastle v Burton - 1.45 Newcastle

  • 1-2 Newcastle in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 1st v 19th in the English Championship.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.

Newcastle other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • 4-2-1-2-2-1-2 scored in recent home matches.
  • 3-4-3-2-0-2-4 goals scored at home v 17th and lower.

Burton Albion 100% stats

  • Lost the 3 matches v top 2 this season.

Burton Albion other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 1-0-0-1-1 scored in recent aways.
  • Only 1 away win v top 14 teams.
  • Not scored 2 goals away v those teams.
  • 11 goals conceded away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Burton have shown they cannot score that 2nd which tells us they are layable if leading.
  • Newcastle should feel confident here. bar a single match, they have scored 2+ at home v 17th and lower. I expect a home win, it might be a 2-1 like their last win.

19:45 - Huddersfield v Norwich - 2.14 Huddersfield

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Huddersfield in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 9th in the English Championship.

Huddersfield 100% stats

  • No draw at home v top 17 teams.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0.

Huddersfield other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 1-1-1-0 scored last 4 home matches.
  • 10 wins and 2 defeats at home v top 17.
  • 11 wins at home by a single goal.

Norwich 100% stats

  • No win v teams above them in the league.
  • No away wins v top 13 teams.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all matches v top 6.

Norwich other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once in last 15 matches - last match.
  • 3 defeats last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in last 15 matches.
  • 18 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Huddersfield on form should be looking for the win v a Norwich with no win away v top 13.
  • Huddersfield could score 2 goals at least today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Liverpool v Bournemouth - 1.42 Liverpool

  • A famous 4-3 Bournemouth in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 11th in the Premiership. Chelsea v City likely to slit each other's throats so a great opportunity for Liverpool here.
  • Bournemouth are 7 points shy of relegation so not safe JUST yet.

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v top 15 at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Liverpool other stats

  • Both teams have scored last 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • Scored last 12 at home.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.

Bournemouth other stats

  • 2 consecutive away draws v Southampton and Man Utd.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Bournemouth 0-0 - as rare as an honest politician. Do not expect a repeat today.
  • Both teams may score today as is the uncomfortable recent Liverpool habit, but Liverpool have been outscoring opponents of late.
  • Points precious for both. I would expect Liverpool to score 2+ goals today and ordinarily that leads to a win.

19:45 - Arsenal v West Ham - 1.41 Arsenal

  • 0-2 West Ham, 3-3 and 1-5 Arsenal in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 14th in the English Premiership. Arsenal are losing sight of a top 4 place. West Ham are only 6 points shy of relegatin.

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil.

Arsenal other stats

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches saw 5 of those teams score 2 goals at least v the Arse.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 19 matches.

West Ham 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • No 0-0.

West Ham other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 11 aways, scoring in their last 5 aways.
  • Only 2 wins in 21 matches home and away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea v Palace was a London Derby and we saw what happened there! So remember this small factor, particularly with the Arthur Daley air of unreliability about Arsenal.
  • Strictly on form (and taking the emotion of a derby away), Arsenal should not be losing this v a West Ham with only 2 wins in 21 v teams above them in the league.
  • Arsenal may gain heart from the 2-2 v Man City which saw them much improved. Top 4 is a must so expect 100% today.
  • lay any late 0-0. West Ham are one of a dying breed this season without a 0-0.
  • West Ham may score but are opposable if doing so.

19:45 - Southampton v Crystal Palace - 1.88 Southampton

  • Palace won 3-0 last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 16th in the English Premiership.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower.

Southampton other stats

  • Only one loss at home v teams below them was against Londoners West Ham.

Palace 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Palace other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 draws.
  • 3 wins in 4 aways.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • 18 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call as Big Sam has Palace full of confidence. Southampton matches v the strugglers have lacked goals. 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 for instance.
  • A match for the in-play stats I am afraid as I cannot dismiss Palace in their current excellent winning form.
  • Lay any late draw though? Palace tend to avoid the draw.

19:45 - Swansea v Tottenham - 1.75 Tottenham

  • Both teams scored in 5 matches until a 5-0 Tottenham last match.
  • This is 17th v 2nd in the Premiership. Swansea are a point from relegation. Tottenham are 7 points from Chelsea who lost last weekend. MUST WIN for both sides.

Swansea 100% stats

  • Not beaten top 6 side at home.
  • Yet to beat the top 2.
  • Conceded 2+ goals at home v top 6.

Swansea other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a 0-0 v Boro.
  • 87% over 1.5 goals.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside of the top 6.

Tottenham other stats

  • Failed t score in only 4 matches.
  • 79% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • We usually see goals in head to heads but this part of the season is crunch time for both sides and form might not be reflected today.
  • IF we go with form, over 2.5 goals has a great chance. Will Swansea continue to concede 2? If so back SPURS if Swansea score first.

19:45 - Hull v Middlesbrough - 2.1 Hull

  • 1-0 Boro last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 19th in the Premiership.
  • Again I am reluctant to fully research these relegation six-pointers but will check out the standout stats.
  • Hull are unbeaten in 6 at home. 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets Hull is a big concern.
  • No 0-0 at home Hull.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • Boro have only 1 win away v Sunderland.
  • Boro have failed to score in their last 5 away.
  • As I say, this will be another nervy relegation six pointer and a win could define the season. On form, Hull really do have the momentum here and if that momentum continues, they could score 2 v a Boro side without a goal in 5 away matches.

20:00 - Chelsea v Man City - 2.46 Chelsea

  • The market tells us everything here. A big clash and a market which cannot side.
  • 1-3 Chelsea the last time these 2 met. No in-depth research here.
  • Key stats. No draw in 14 at home for Chelsea who have scored in each match.
  • Both teams have scored in Chelsea's last 7 matches.
  • 2-1 and 1-2 v 2nd and 3rd at home.
  • 3 consecutive draws for City is scuppering their chances of guaranteeing a Champions League spot.
  • City have failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Losses v 2nd and 3rd away for City.
  • This match is unlikely to run to any pattern which is why I have not researched it in full. 2-1/1-2 again? It was a scoreline I went with Arsenal v City and there was a trading profit at 1-1.

20:30 - Leganes v Real Madrid - 1.37 Real Madrid

  • 3-0 Real Madrid last time these 2 met.
  • This is 17th v 1st in Spanish la Liga.

Leganes 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 15 team at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.
  • 3-5-2 conceded v the big boys in no wins.

Leganes other stats

  • 3 consecutive draws.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • All wins v 14th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime last 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • It's crunch time now for Real Madrid in the title push.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Leganes may score such is Madrid's poor defence but are opposable if leading. Note their recent draws.
  • Expect 2 goals in total today so any 0-0 is an anomoly.