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Must wins tended to win last night. There are a whole raft of must-wins or must-get-a-positive-results tonight. If I am online, I will tweet @drtclub.

19:45 - Feyenoord v Napoli - 1.33 Napoli

  • Feyenoord will finish fourth.
  • Napoli must win and hope Shakhtar lose; in that case Napoli would finish second on head-to-head.

Feyenoord

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 5 wins in 17 matches. 2 consecutive wins.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : Win, Draw , Win last 3 after a a run of no win in 4.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 12 consecutive defeats. Simply out of their depth?
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 5 consecutive home defeats.

Napoli

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 3 consecutive wins ended with a 0-1 loss v Juventus.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 defeats in 8 matches came in the Champions League, 2 2-1 defeats. 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : no draw in 10 matches . scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5. 2 and 3 goals scored in the last 2 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY :2 consecutive 2-1 away defeats. This must change.

Conclusions

  • Napoli must be delighted to be playing Feyenoord who have a terrible losing record in the Champions League. Napoli have found other teams tough to beat away from home, 2 2-1 defeats.
  • I certainly expect an improved performance from Napoli. Their weekend loss to Juve may have had this do-or-die match in mind.
  • With no draw in 10 matches for Napoli dare we expect an away win? Will Napoli keep conceding in this competition? I must lay Feyenoord if Feyenoord score first.

19:45 - Liverpool v Spartak Moscow - 1.24 Liverpool

  • Liverpool will qualify with a draw, and will clinch first place with a win, or a draw if Sevilla fail to win. If Liverpool lose they are out unless Sevilla are also defeated (as Liverpool would be below Spartak in a two-way head-to-head or would be third in a three-way head-to-head on nine points).
  • Spartak would be through with a win or third with any other result. If Spartak win they will finish top unless Sevilla also win.

Liverpool

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 6 wins and 2 score draws in their last 8 matches. In 7 of those matches, Liverpool scored at least 3 goals.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 16 matches. 3 3-0 wins ended with a 1-1.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : unbeaten in 9 matches. 2 wins and a 3-3 last 3 matches. 1-1 v Spartak last time they met.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 4-2, 2-2, 3-0 last 3 home matches.

Spartak Moscow

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 wins in 5 matches. only 1 loss in 19 matches. Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 1 loss in 9 aways was in the Champions League.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded in their last 6 matches. Unexpectedly beat Sevilla 5-1 at home.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8. 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 away.

Conclusions

  • Remember here that Spartak need to win so they are not going to Anfield to get their tummy tickled. On form, Spartak Moscow could score. It is a habit of theirs in the Champions League.
  • Do watch out for that. Liverpool need only a draw and I am not so sure whether 1st place is such an incentive. Qualification is the priority and that is achieved with a draw.
  • Liverpool are full of goals when they want to be. With Spartak losing 2-1 away to the likes of Celtic, I feel Liverpool have the goal power to nail this match, score draw worst case scenario, 2/3 goals best case for the Scousers.

19:45 - NK Maribor v Sevilla - 1.21 Sevilla

  • Maribor will finish fourth.
  • Sevilla will qualify with a draw, or if Spartak fail to win. Sevilla clinch first place if they win and Liverpool do not.

NK Maribor

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored and conceded in their last 4 matches. Only 3 wins in 8 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 loss in 15 was v Liverpool.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : no win. 2 draws and 3 defeats without scoring. Sevilla beat them 3-0 earlier.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-1 and 0-7 loss.

Sevilla

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 loss in 9 matches was v Barcelona.7 wins in those 9 matches. Scored 2 goals at least in all bar one of those matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 wins and 5 losses in 7 matches. 2 wins in their last 3 away matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of 7 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 2-2 and 5-1 loss last 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla need a draw and I think they can do it. They do score and concede, that is a problem. I think Sevilla will be happy with qualifying regardless of whether they finish 1st or 2nd. Oppose any Maribor lead here.

19:45 - Porto v Monaco - 1.34 Porto

  • Porto are through if they win, or as long as they are at least level on points with Leipzig due to their superior head-to-head (on goal difference).
  • Monaco will finish fourth.

Porto

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 3 consecutive draws. Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 2 home losses since July 2016. 5 wins and 2 0-0's in their last 7 home matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches. Wins v Monaco and Leipzig.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-3 loss to Besiktas and 3-1 win v Leipzig.

Monaco

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 1-1's and a 0-1 loss last 3 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : no win in 7 matches saw 5 losses and 2 draws; scored and conceded in 5/6.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : scored and conceded in 11/12 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.

Conclusions

  • Porto did beat Monaco at Monaco, a 0-3 win so must be feeling confident here. Monaco have nothing to play for.
  • Porto are scoring and conceding, and Monaco have that strong pattern too. You feel Porto may need 2 goals today to get the win. That presumes Monaco are switched on.

19:45 - RB Leipzig v Besiktas - 1.33 RB Leipzig

  • Leipzig must pick up more points than Porto to finish second.
  • Besiktas are through as group winners.

RB Leipzig

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS: only 3 wins in 8 matches; scored 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 9. 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM  : losses came away v Besiktas and Porto.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-1 and 3-2 v Porto.

Besiktas

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 10 matches. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored and conceded in 11 of 13 matches. 0-0 last match though.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 3 wins and 2 1-1 draws. Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 1-3 v Porto and 1-2 v Monaco. Besiktas have beaten Leipzig 2-0.

Conclusions

  • Yesterday we saw teams that needed to win tended to win, such as Basel and Juventus. Here we have a Besiktas team already qualified and with the form to actually beat Leipzig. But this is a must win versus a nothing-to-play for.
  • The market is with the team who need the result. Besiktas have a strong scoring and conceding pattern but the question is whether they will play a full or a secondary team. Besiktas are group winners and quite simply have nothing to gain or lose.
  • Must wins tend to win when playing un-motivated opposition.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Dortmund - 1.49 Real Madrid

  • Madrid have qualified as group runners-up.
  • Dortmund and APOEL will contest third place. In case both teams draw Dortmund will be qualified due to superior goal difference in all matches. In case both teams win or lose the final ranking will depend on the number of goals scored and conceded in the last two matches.

Real Madrid

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 consecutive draws. Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches; conceded 2 goals in their last 2 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : one loss came v Tottenham.Only dropped points came v Tottenham.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : unbeaten in 17 matches at home.

Dortmund

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored and conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches. Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 losses and a draw last 3. Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded in their last 7 matches without winning any.Real Madrid have won 1-3 already.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 4 losses and a draw in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid cannot improve on their 2nd place and are guaranteed qualification so will be 'switched off' I think this evening. Watch for team changes. And watch I think for another entertaining goal fest.
  • Dortmund are poor and contest 3rd place so cannot qualify. A match not really for the trader. It is full of question marks. What will the Real Madrid team look like? Will Dortmund bother to bust a gut this evening?
  • If we look at form patterns, then both teams to score is a strong pattern But this is a dead rubber when all is said and done.

19:45 - Shakhtar v Man City - 2.68 Shakhtar

  • Shakhtar will be through if they avoid defeat or if Napoli do not win.
  • Man. City are through as group winners.

Shakhtar

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 3 consecutive wins.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 3 wins saw both teams score. 2 losses v Man City and Napoli came away from home.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 3 consecutive home wins.

Man City

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 19 wins and a 0-0 in the last 20 matches. 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines; 88th, 84th, 90th and 83rd minute winners in the last 4 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 9 consecutive wins. scored and conceded in 3/4 away.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 5 consecutive wins scoring 2+ goals. Beat Shakhtar 2-0 earlier in the campaign.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 0-4 and 2-4 wins away.

Conclusions

  • What a conundrum. Man City are chasing records but have absolutely nothing to play for this evening.
  • De Bruyne and Silva miss the match this evening. On form, Shakhtar have nothing to worry Man City. But mentally, Shakhtar will be up for this match and will play for a needed draw.
  • Tough to predict.

19:45 - Tottenham v APOEL - 1.26 Tottenham

  • Tottenham have qualified as group winners due to their superior head-to-head over Madrid.
  • Dortmund and APOEL will contest third place. In case both teams draw Dortmund will be qualified due to superior goal difference in all matches. In case both teams win or lose the final ranking will depend on the number of goals scored and conceded in the last two matches.
  • This is a dead rubber of sorts and I would expect that Tottenham will make some team changes, what with a hectic December fixture schedule under way.