Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The Dutch Eredivisie is the only league football this evening. There are some readable games. We did profit from the likes of Ajax at the weekend and 0-0 ending 2nd half in the Feyenoord match. I will try and live chat via Twitter @drtclub, the 17:30 kick offs appeal to me. I have done a live video on DRT Facebook for the 'kerching strategy' which was mentioned by some members. It is a horse racing strategy so take a look if that piqued your interest.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP REPLAY

20:00 - Tottenham v Newport County  - 1.11 Tottenham

  • The 1-1 draw was a very tradable match. 1-0 Newport County until Harry Kane's 82nd minute equaliser allowed us to lay Newport County at nice low odds.
  • Today should be game over for Newport County. 1.11 odds was similar to the first leg but usually indicates 3/4 goals.
  • There were many changes in the first leg for Tottenham. Team news will be important but still will not be an impedement this evening you'd think.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

It was a weekend of surprises in this league with Feyenoord losing late on, Breda scoring first v Ajax (but a nice Ajax recovery) and AZ Alkmaar cocking it up at 1.25 odds at home, drawing only 2-2. This is the only league football today so worthy of research.

17:30 - PSV v Excelsior - 1.13 PSV

  • 2-0 and 1-2 PSV in the last 2 head to heads.

PSV (1st)

  • 2 losses and a draw spoil all wins this season.
  • Failed to score only in defeat.
  • 10 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.

Excelsior (11th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2-2 v Utrecht latest was a decent result.
  • But that is the 3rd match in which they conceded at least 2 goals.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 50% 1-1 draws at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Excelsior did beat an inform AZ away from home but that was the only win v top 9.
  • At their best today, 3 goals is the expectation from PSV.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Twente v Az Alkmaar - 1.92 AZ Alkmaar

  • 3 consecutive AZ wins in recent head to heads.

Twente (15th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • 2-4 goals conceded v top 4 this season.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

AZ Alkmaar (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v top 4.
  • 2+ goals scored in 6 of 7 matches v 14th and lower.
  • Scored first in 8/10 away.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2 goals at least in total.
  • Twente are not the Twente of old. They are conceding 2+ v top 4. AZ are scoring 2+ v 14th and lower.
  • That is a ready angle into the match. Side with AZ not to lose even if they concede first.

17:30 - Utrecht v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.56 Utrecht

  • 3 consecutive Utrecht wins in head to heads.

Utrecht (7th)

  • 4 consecutive draws now.
  • No win in 6 sees 5 draws.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match at home.

Sparta (18th)

  • 8 losses in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 10 away, conceding in every match.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v top 13 sides.
  • 18 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right here. Sparta are yet to win away.
  • Do note that Sparta tend to concede heavily 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Breda v Heracles - 2.18 Breda

  • 1-3 and 2-1 Heracles in the last 2 head to heads.

Breda (16th)

  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 home wins v 7th, 11th and 13th.
  • Scored and conceded in 6/7 matches v teams below them in the league.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Heracles (12th)

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • No win in 10 away, conceding in all of those matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded without winning v 4th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today and, on form, Heracles not win. But then Breda have only 3 wins at home. Breda have had a good win recently v Utrecht and they scored first v Ajax.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay the 0-0 2nd half.

19:45 - Roda JC v Ajax - 1.21 Ajax

  • 0-2 and 5-1 Ajax in the last 2 head to heads.

Roda JC (17th)

  • 2 draws and a win in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches and in 9 away.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match, last match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3-3-3-3-3-8-5-4 goals scored v teams 13th and lower.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I said it last Ajax match. Expect 3 goals and they obliged. We should expect 3 goals today again. Look at Ajax v 13th and lower.
  • Both sides have a high % of 0-0's at halftime. I would have gone for a goal before halftime based on expectation for goals but the stats are not with me there.
  • If 0-0 at halftime it's a good opportunity for something like a 0-3, 1-3, any other away scoreline.
  • At any rate, expect Roda to concede if they keep this tight for a while.

19:45 - Willem II v VVV - 2.66 Willem II

  • 2.66 the favourite.... I hope you know by now what that suggests.
  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met.

Willem II (14th)

  • No win in 7 and in 4 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 11 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost all home matches v top 11.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all matches v top 11 home and away.

VVV (9th)

  • 4 wins and a 1-1 last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored away last 30 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • I must acknowledge 2.66 the favourite but on a reading of the form, Willem II are liable to conceding 2 goals today.
  • VVV recently beat Feyenoord at home and that is some scalp so if they bring that momentum (and the momentum of 4 wins and a draw in 5) to this match, I must be with VVV today if Willem II score first.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

20:30 - Sevilla v Leganes - 1.54 Sevilla

  • This is the second leg of the Copa Del rey. It is 1-1 from the first leg. Sevilla scored first, Leganes equalised in the second half.
  • The market expects Sevilla to oblige this evening.
  • Since 29th January 2015, Sevilla have only lost to Barcelona and Real Madrid in the Copa del rey.6 consecutive wins prior to the 1-1.
  • 11 wins and a 3-3 in recent Copa del rey home matches for Sevilla.
  • 2-1 loss away v Villareal but then a 1-2 win v Real Madrid away for leganes.
  • Was this down to a much-changed Real Madrid side or do Leganes have a chance here today?
  • I personally am taken by the Sevilla form, particularly at home. Only losing to the big 2 since January 2015 is compelling.
  • I would lay any Leganes lead.

GERMAN CUP

19:45 - Schalke v Wolfsburg - 1.8 Schalke

  • I will look at this match as we have an odds on favourite. We saw with Leverkusen yesterday - they came from 0-2 down to draw 2-2.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches for Schalke in the German Cup.
  • At home in the German Cup, Schalke lost to Mainz, Hoffenheim, Mgladbach  then a 1-0 win v Koln.
  • Since August 2012, Wolfsburg have only lost to Bayern (3 times), and Dortmund. It seems the Wolf are up for the cup?
  • Both sides seem up for the cup so this makes this match less appealing than, say, the Leverkusen match yesterday where Levekusen had recent form v Werder Bremen.