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Some good calls yesterday, 1-1 Barcelona match and 0-0 PSG at halftime with PSG expected to score 2 goals (final score 2-1). Today is a mixed bag of league football and cup football. My priority in researching is for league football as it has the form and stats. I will not research all French Ligue 1 matches as it is (like the English Championship) a tough nut to crack.

17:00 - Crotone v Juventus - 1.23 Juventus

Crotone 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v the top 6 and meet top of the league today.
  • Not beaten a top 11 team.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Half of halftime scorelines have been 1-0.

Juventus 100% stats

  • No draw.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Juventus other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 10 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw as Juve keep avoiding draws.
  • Do note Juve's very strong 2nd half scoring stats so any 0-0 at halftime should be opposed 2nd half.

17:30 - Sandhausen v Schalke - 1.76 Schalke

  • This is the German Cup.

Sandhausen overall form

  • Are a league lower than Schalke.
  • Only 2 defeats in 10 matches were 1-0.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in 12 home matches were 0-1.

Sandhausen cup form

  • Unbeaten in 4 cup matches, but 3 of them went to penalties. 2 recent wins after penalties came v Bundesliga teams.
  • The last 2 home matches went to penalties.

Schalke overall form

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • No win in 5 away matches with a draw and 4 defeats 3 of those defeats were 2-1.

Schalke Cup form

  • 16 matches without a draw.
  • 3 wins in their last 4.
  • Recent losses have tended to be against top flight teams.
  • 17 wins and 2 defeats in 19 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I like to sniff out teams who seem up for the cup, and that seems the case with both sides, more so with Schalke.
  • Sandhausen tend to go to extra time and penalties, Schalke tend to avoid the draw. It does lean us towards a Schalke win.
  • I would lay any late draw and lay Sandhausen if Sanhausen score first as they tend not to win cup matches in 90 minutes.

18:00 - Lyon v Nancy - 1.45 Lyon

  • 0-3 Lyon the last time these 2 teams met in French Ligue 1.

Lyon 100% stats

  • No draw at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Lyon other stats

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.

Nancy 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 13 team (Lyon are 4th).
  • Not scored an away goal in the first 1/2 hour of away matches.

Nancy other stats

  • Only 3 defeats in 13 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 8 of 10 matches home and away v top 10 sides.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Nancy cannot score, they will not land a blow, despite good recent form.
  • Lyon have shown, away from home as well, that they can score against Nancy.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but delay because Lyon had 7 1-0's at halftime but Nancy had 7 0-0's at halftime.
  • If 0-0 at halftime (as with PSG last night), do expect 2nd half goals. Lyon have scored in all home matches.
  • Nancy should not be winning today. They simply find the top 10 too much.

18:00 - Nice v St Etienne - 2.14 Nice

  • Nice have won the last 3 head to heads in French Ligue 1.
  • I do like researching St Etienne because they are a big 2nd half scoring side.

Nice 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • All wins v top 10 teams (Nice are 3rd, and St Etienne are 5th).

Nice other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2-4 goals at home v top 8 teams.

St Etienne 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

St Etienne other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3 defeats and a 1-1 away v top 9 teams.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half. 8 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I was surprised. Nice are rock solid v top 10 teams. If this form continues they will win and score 2 goals at least.
  • As ever with St Etienne if the match is 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
  • St Etienne on form should not win today so mark that if they score first.

18:00 - Angers v Rennes - 2.6 Angers

  • Rennes tend to have the better of, what are, tight head to heads in French Ligue 1.

Angers 100% stats

  • Struggling in the bottom 3.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side at home (Rennes are 9th).
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Angers other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home only v teams 15th and lower.

Rennes 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Rennes other stats

  • 4 1-1 draws last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 matches and failed to score more than one goal in the matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away.

Conclusions

  • I feel obliged to research French Ligue 1 as these are league matches but ordinarily I'd leave these matches alone.
  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Rennes have poor away form, losing to top and bottom teams so cannot be fully trusted. Angers have conceded last 11 matches and tend not to score 2 goals.
  • I would want to lay any 1-1 scoreline but these 2 are struggling to score that 2nd goal!

18:00 - Lorient v Toulouse - 2.34 Lorient

  • 2 2-3 scorelines in the last 3 head to heads in French Ligue 1.

Lorient 100% stats

  • Bottom of French Ligue 1 so worthy of investigation.
  • No 0-0.

Lorient other stats

  • 2-2-3-2 goals scored at home. They are giving it a go at home to avoid the drop.
  • Only 3 clean sheets perhaps the reason they need to score 2 goals to get anything.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Wins at home v 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th, 12th and play 10th today.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Toulouse 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Toulouse other stats

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Failed to score in the last 4 aways.

Conclusions

  • I could see an upset of sorts today. Look at Lorient's recent scoring, not the scoring of a team bottom of the league.
  • If they can score 2 goals again against a Toulouse failing to score in 4 away matches, then they could get a valuable win.
  • I would lay Toulouse if Toulouse scored first.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would back 2-2 2nd half, a mischievous nod towards the head to heads.

19:45 - Dortmund v Hertha Berlin - 1.38 Dortmund

  • This is the German Cup.

Dortmund overall form

  • Unbeaten in 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 14 home matches.

Dortmund cup form

  • Only 1 loss in 90 minutes in their last 20 cup matches.
  • 2 extra time matches in their last 3.
  • Did lose at home to Wolfsburg in 2015.

Hertha Berlin overall form

  • 2 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 12 away matches.

Hertha Berlin cup form

  • Only 1 loss in 9 cup matches was a 0-3 v Dortmund in April 2016.
  • Unbeaten in 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • The most compelling piece of evidence is Hertha's single defeat recently in the cup which came v Dortmund and was emphatic.
  • Dortmund are unbeaten in 14 at home and have only 1 loss in 90 minutes in 20 cup matches. Dortmund it seems are up for the cup and this looks enough to side with them today (caveat with cup matches - no wholesale team changes!).

19:45 - Leicester v Derby - 2.16 Leicester

  • This is an FA Cup match and a local derby.

Leicester overall form

  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 v Derby in the last 5 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 home matches without scoring, albeit v stronger teams than Derby.

Leicester cup form

  • In 4 of the last 5 cup matches, Leicester conceded 2 goals at least.
  • 2-2 v Derby and was a poor performance. Own goal and 86th minute equaliser for Leicester.
  • Lost to Tottenham at home this time last year.

Derby overall form

  • 3 defeats in their last 7 matches, 2 were 1-0.
  • LWLWL (L=Loss, W=Win) away in recent matches.

Derby Cup form

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 6 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 1 defeat and 2 wins.

Conclusions

  • Leicester are extremely lucky to still be in the Fa Cup. Wholly unconvincing away performance.
  • Derby keep scoring and conceding so look to lay Derby if Derby score first today.

19:45 - Bologna v AC Milan - 2.32 AC Milan

  • 0-1 Bologna and 1-0 Milan in the last 2 head to heads.

Bologna 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away and play 8th today.

Bologna other stats

  • 4 clean sheets in their last 7 matches - did lost 1-7 to Napoli last match.
  • Only 1 0-0.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No draw home and away v 10th and lower (Bologna are 14th).
  • No away match with exactly 2 goals.

AC Milan other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 7 wins and a loss to Genoa v teams 12th and lower.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A cursory nod towards AC Milan despite their 3 consecutive defeats and Bologna's 4 clean sheets in 7 matches. I like the fact Bologna are yet to beat a top 7 side (admittedly Bologna are 8th).
  • Milan have also 7 wins and a loss v teams 12th and lower.
  • Note Milan tend to score 2nd half so if 0-0 at halftime note that.
  • I would lay Bologna if Bologna scored first.

20:00 - Marseille v Guingamp - 1.72 Marseille

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 teams met in French Ligue 1.

Marseille 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No home match with total goals of 4 of more.

Marseille other stats

  • 3 defeats last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 1st.
  • 0-0's at home v 4th, 7th,10th and play 8th today.
  • 8 clean sheets in 10 matches played at home v 4th and lower.

Guingamp 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Wins away were by 2 goals.

Guingamp other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 3-1 defeats away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 10 away matches.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Marseille are in poor recent form but are very tough to score against at home and that might help get them points.
  • 0-0 may be in-play if you want to back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a 0-0 at halftime to trade out.
  • Guingamp have conceded in their last 10 away matches so lay any late 0-0.

20:00 - Alaves v Celta Vigo - 2.92 Alaves and 2.94 Celta

  • This is the second leg of the Copa Del Rey and it was 0-0 from the first leg.
  • Add this to the odds - the 2 sides cannot be split, and I will leave this be! You could back 0-0 pre match if you think that this is too tight to call.