Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I am researching the Chinese Super League as it is well established form wise and at a time which allows trading. Elsewhere it is largely cup day in Denmark and England with the FA Cup and League Cup. I will not be trading the FA Cup, the likes of Bishop Auckland, Exmouth and even Quorn are playing. I will stick my neck out here. I don't think any team playing today in the FA Cup will be at Wem-ber-ley next summer. The League cup yesterday I found readable as the market was pretty much spot on with its choice of favourites. I will take a quick look at the League Cup again today. I will try and be on Twitter today from 19:45 if possible @drtclub. That is, only if I am online.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Chongqing Lifan v Shandong Luneng - 2.08 Shandong

  • 1-1, 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 4th in the Chinese Super League.

Chongqing Lifan

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Has yet to beat a top 4 team or score more than a single goal.

Shandong

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 of 4 defeats this season came v the top 3 teams.
  • I must note the 4 draws in 5 matches v 6th-10th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Generally Shandong only lose to the top 3 so a draw should be their worst case scenario today. I will approach trading with that in mind.
  • Shandong are highly likely to score so note that if they trail 1-0 or if the match is 0-0 for a while.

12:35 - Henan v Changchun Yatai - 1.8 Henan

  • Yatai has won the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 11th in the Chinese Super League.

Henan

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home win came v bottom side.
  • Has only scored 2 goals or more twice at home.

Yatai

  • No win in 3 sees 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • Scored 2 goals or more only twice away.

Conclusions

  • A match to leave alone. Henan only 1 win, Yatai hardly in a position to exploit that with only 2 wins.
  • Further, these 2 have trouble scoring that 2nd goal.

12:35 - Shanghai Shenhua v Guizhou HF Zhicheng - 1.7 Shanghai

  • 0-2 Shanghai in the only recent head to head.
  • This is 9th v 10th in the Chinese Super League.

Shanghai Shenhua

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.

Guizhou

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All losses away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • First thing to note. This should not end 0-0.
  • Shanghai tends to score and concede so you might want to back 1-1 or 2-2 as possible trading angles.

12:35 - Guangzhou R&F v Jiangsu Suning - 1.94 Guangzhou

  • Both teams scored in the last 7 head to heads.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 Guangzhou in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 13th in the Chinese Super League.

Guangzhou

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 17 goals scored in the last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home and last 9 overall.
  • 2-4-4-2-6-1 goals scored v teams 13th and lower.

Jiangsu

  • Unbeaten in 5.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2-1-4-2-2 goals scored in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 7 came at home.

Conclusions

  • This could be an entertaining goal laden match.
  • I am tempted to back 2-2 and 3-3. Both sides are in strong very recent goal scoring form and if that keeps up, then 2-2 and 3-3 odds may drop in-play.
  • I would be keener to be with the home side as quite obviously they are in electric form at home, averaging 4 goals a game recently.
  • I would have to lay any Jiangsu lead.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Leeds v Port Vale - 1.5 Leeds

  • Championship v League Two.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Leeds was against Liverpool last match.
  • Leeds has an excellent historical record at home, with only the one loss, in 2012 v Chelsea.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 for Port Vale.
  • I would suspect the market has this game right today. Last night the favourites (bar Sheff Wed) seemed to all score first and negate any trades. Let's hope Port Vale can score first.

19:45 - Oldham v Burton - 2.68 Oldham

  • League One v Championship and the market really cannot split these 2 sides.
  • Oldham only has the one win in recent League Cup matches Oldham won their last home match v Wigan.
  • Burton has been a little more competitive in the League Cup, losing to Liverpool last match but prior to that rather obvious result, 2 matches went to extra time.
  • Strictly on the form, a slight nod to Burton but a realisation here that the market cannot split these teams at all.

19:45 - Crewe v Bolton - 2.06 Bolton

  • League Two v Championship.
  • 3 extra time matches in 4 for Crewe in the league cup suggests they go for it. They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches too and may be vulnerable if leading given all of those extra times.
  • For me, Bolton has the look of a team happy to see the back of this competition at their earliest convenience. 2 defeats and an extra time loss to Blackpool in their last 3. Prior to that they actually won 2 extra time matches v Bury and Crewe.
  • This is not a match I will be focussing on.

19:45 - Sheff Utd v Walsall - 1.49 Sheff Utd

  • Championship v League One.
  • Well, Sheffield Wednesday certainly did the business yesterday, conceding first and then actually leading by halftime.
  • Sheff Utd don't have the most impressive recent League Cup record.. They did fail to beat Tottenham in 2015, lost away to Fulham and went out in extra time to Crewe.
  • Walsall lost to Chelsea and went out in extra time to Yeovil last 2 league cup matches.
  • There are no strong form lines to get our teeth into so default to faith in the market, backed up with the in-play stats.

19:45 - Colchester v Aston Villa - 1.65 Aston Villa

  • League two v Championship and really the gap in the leagues should be enough for us to side with Villa tonight.
  • No win in 7 matches in the league cup for Colchester suggests the market is right.
  • As to Villa, well only 1 win in 6 League Cup matches again leaves a question mark regarding their attitude to this competition.
  • 2 consecutive away losses v Southampton and Luton Town.
  • This is the problem we have with the League Cup. It is a compettition which a lot of teams do not want to compete in. The in-play stats will reveal Aston Villa's attitude today against, admittedly, a Colchester side tending not to last long in the League Cup.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

19:00 - Porto v Estoril Praia - 1.19 Porto

  • 5 consecutive Porto wins in head to heads as the big 2 in Portugal's Primera Liga play tonight. (Porto and Benfica, not Porto and Estoril!!)
  • HT/FT: FC Porto have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Estoril have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 trips to Big Three teams.
  • FC Porto have won 9/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Porto were unbeaten at home last season. They only failed to score 2 goals on 4 occasions at home. They had only 2 losses last season.
  • Estoril had a 100% loss record home and away v the Big 3 last season (Benfica, Porto and Sporting Lisbon).
  • This should be a comfortable home win.Porto lost their manager to Wolves and have lost a couple of high profile players. So note the new manager may see new tactics in contrast to last year.

21:00 - Benfica v Braga - 1.36 Benfica

  • Benfica at home tends to score 2 goals at least v Braga who I would describe as 'best of the rest' outside of the top 3 in the Portugeuse Primera Liga.
  • Match outcome: Benfica have won 14/16 home matches while Sp. Braga have lost 12/14 away matches against Big Three teams.
  • Benfica have had W/W double results in 12/16 home matches.
  • Benfica won the title last year and were unbeaten at home. They only failed to score 2 goals at least on 2 occasions last year. They ended last season unbeaten in 15 matches home and away.
  • Braga lost 3-1 away to Benfica last season but look at the other scorelines away for Braga v the top 7 - 1-0 loss; 0-1 win; 0-1 win; 1-0 loss; 1-0 loss; 0-1 win.
  • Braga, at their best can keep things tight. Look out for that potential tonight. And remember the last head to head saw a Benfica 0-1 win.
  • I would be with Benfica tonight. 3 £30 million + transfers out . It seems Porto and Benfica are more selling clubs than buying clubs. Transfers in £11 million. Transfers out £163 million tells its story. We must assume Benfica are in as good nick as last season.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

15:30 - Ural v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.47 Zenit

  • 8 consecutive Zenit wins sees them tending to score 2 goals at least v Ural.
  • 4 matches into the season and both sides are unbeaten. Ural has 3 1-1 draws and a win. Zenit has won all matches and scored 2-2-1-5 goals.
  • Match outcome: FC Ural have lost 9/12 home matches against top-six teams while Zenit St P have won 11/12 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • Zenit St P have had W/W double results in 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • I tend to latch onto teams during a season and Zenit is a team I am keen to side with throughout. They do look reliable despite losing manager Villas Boas to the lure of the ££££££££££££££ in China.

17:30 - Spartak Moscow v Arsenal Tula - 1.32 Spartak Moscow

  • Recently the home team has tended to win the head to heads.
  • 3 defeats and a solitary 1-0 win at home for Tula.
  • Spartak drew 2-2 with Dinamo Moscow, 0-0 away at Ufa, 2-0 home win v Krasnador, and 5-1 loss v Zenit.
  • Match outcome: Spartak M. have won 10/10 home matches while Arsenal Tula have lost 10/10 away matches.
  • Spartak M. have scored first in 10/11 home matches.
  • The market expects the home side to win again as per head to heads. Little in the way of form lines to work with.

18:00 - Rostov v Dinamo Moscow - 2.34 Rostov

  • 2 Rostov wins ended with a Dinamo Moscow cup win in head to heads.
  • Rostov are a Tony Pulis wet dream. They try to pull off the 1-0 win in every match. So far this season. 1-1, 0-1 loss and then it clicked with 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • One of the goals they conceded was a penalty.
  • Dinamo Moscow I think are newly promoted from the FNL league.Struggles to date, albeit their sole win came at home 3-0 v Amkar Perm.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 FC Rostov home matches against promoted teams.
  • Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 61% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012.
  • Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012.
  • Rostov were unbeaten at home last season.They kept an amazing 12 clean sheets which relays to you their strengths. They will be very hard to score against. 1-0 and 2-0 could see some mileage if that defence clicks into gear.

18:00 - Rubin Kazan v Lokomotiv - 2.64 Rubin

  • Rubin won the last 2 head to heads 2-0 and 0-1.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Lok. M. away matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches.
  • Rubin Kazan have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • All 2-1 scorelines for Rubin this season, 2 losses and 2 wins. All wins for Lokomotiv, 3 of those were 1-0.
  • Most certainly it seems that we can lay Rubin if Rubin scores first.
  • Lokomotiv's 1-0 wins all came in 3 home matches. We have little to work with this season.

18:00 - Tosno v CSKA Moscow - 1.53 CSKA

  • Tosno are newly promoted.
  • Neither side has seen a draw this season.
  • 3 defeats for Tosno. 2 at home were 0-1 and one was v Zenit. We could see a rear guard action from Tosno today.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss CSKA so far.
  • You might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope that Tosno's defence is in good nick. If they can keep Zenit to 0-1 then that is some feat (albeit the goal was scored 10th minute).

SCOTTISH LEAGUE CUP#

This has been an eminently tradable competition.

19:45 - Dundee v Dundee United - 2.4 Dundee

  • Premiership v Championship. Derby of course negates the difference in league.
  • 1-1 last league cup match.Dundee has won the last 2 home matches 2-1.
  • Dundee is unbeaten in 5 League cup matches.
  • Dundee United have only 1 loss in 8 League Cup matches.
  • I would be keen to back 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines. The hope is that we see both teams scoring as per the head to heads and we see a 1-1. IF we see a 1-1 scoreline, we have the next available scoreline covered (2-1 and 1-2). You can then either stay in, or you can lay the 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines whose odds should shorten at 1-1.

19:45 - Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.63 Aberdeen

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 home wins for Hamilton for these 2 Premiership sides. Take note!
  • Both teams have scored in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 matches in the League Cup.
  • 2 of their last 3 matches went to penalties.They have not really been meeting Premiership sides.
  • Aberdeen's 3 recent league cup losses were exclusively v Premiership sides.
  • An interesting match with very interesting Hamilton 1-0 head to head home wins. The market though sides firmly with the current 2nd best side in Scotland (Aberdeen).
  • Will you lay Hamilton if Hamilton scores first and risk the wrath of another 1-0 win?

19:45 - Rangers v  Dunfermline - 1.27 Rangers

  • Premiership v Championship.
  • Rangers tend to win their League cup matches. Their last loss was v Celtic 0-1 last match.
  • Rangers exclusively tend to win to nil at home in the League cup.
  • Dunfermline recent wins came at home v Elgin and Peterhead. Their last 2 away matches in the cup went to penalties.
  • Rangers enviable home record should ensure confidence in them today if they go behind at any stage.

19:45 - Ross County v  Motherwell - 2.16 Ross County

  • 2 Premiership sides meet in the Cup.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets for Ross County sees 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Those 0-0's produced penalty wins for Ross.
  • Ross even beat Celtic 3-1 at home in the league cup and conceded 0-0-1-1-0-0-0 in recent home matches. They kept Hibs to 0-0.
  • 7 wins in 8 for Motherwell and their only loss was v Celtic.
  • Tough to call. I would lay any late 0-0 today and hope that Ross 0-0 sequence ends. I would tentatively lay Motherwell were Motherwell to score first, based really on Ross not conceding 2 goals in home league cup matches.