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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, November 17, 2017

I have shortlisted my eye-catchers at the DRT Facebook page. Nice to see league football return. I hope, in a quiet day yesterday, you saw Federer lose the first set and got to work either backing Federer or laying Cilic as Fed won the 2nd set and pushed on. 2 Champions League teams in Monaco and Dortmund. Monaco have lost their last 2 away pre-Champions League matches but on paper meet a weak Amiens, albeit with some defensive strength. Dortmund, well they have scored 2-2-1 last 3 pre-Champions League matches and lost the lot! If I am around on Twitter I will tweet @drtclub but I am keen to spend the time researching more Saturday and Sunday matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Burton v Sheff Utd - 1.96 Sheff Utd

  • Head to heads come from League One.

Burton

  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins all season but did win their last match.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 home matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home.
  • Not won at halftime at home.
  • Playing 2nd today and have lost to nil v 1st, 3rd and 6th. In fact, Burton have failed to score in all matches v top 6 teams.
  • No win v top 16 teams (Sheff Utd are 2nd).
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 at home.

Sheff Utd

  • No draw.
  • All wins bar 5, 4 of those defeats came away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins home and away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form this looks straightforward. Sheff Utd should win to nil.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Watch out for Burton conceding 2 consistently last 4 at home.
  • Lay any late draw and hope Sheff Utd continue to avoid the draw.

19:45 - Preston v Bolton - 1.82 Preston

  • No recent head to heads.

Preston (14th)

  • Only 5 defeats but 4 came in their last 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive matches conceding 2+ goals.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them albeit 3 draws and a win in 4 matches at home.

Bolton (23rd)

  • Unbeaten in 5 ,scoring and conceding in them.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Had a run of 7 matches without scoring end with those 5 matches now.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime since 19th August 2017.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • 4 draws in 5 away v 17th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Preston are suddenly in poor form but unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • Bolton have only 1 clean sheet but are unbeaten in 5 but not won away.
  • A messy match. Given the single clean sheet, Bolton should concede at some stage. Make that an angle in.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Lille v St Etienne - 2.42 Lille

  • 3-1 St Etienne and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Lille (19th)

  • Only 2 wins and they were 3-0 wins, one coming last match.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets, 2 of which resulted in a win.
  • Failed to score in 7 matches this season.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Failed to score at home v 2nd, 4th, 7th, 9th. Did beat 5th 3-0 (first match of season).
  • Opponents tend to score first.

St Etienne (6th)

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 1-0-1-1-0 scored away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% win record in 4 matches v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Lille are more liable to failing to score, than scoring v top 9 and on that basis, I will favour St Etienne who have a 100% win record v 15th and lower.
  • But St E. have scored only 1-0-1-1-0 away. This is why you see a 2.42 odds for the favourite. It is a messy match.

19:45 - Amiens v Monaco - 1.57 Monaco

Amiens (17th)

  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws after a run of 3 1-0 results (2 defeats).
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • All defeats v top 7 without scoring.
  • No 0-0.

Monaco (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 matches this season.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 1-4 win away v 16th, 0-4 win away v 19th.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Neither side has seen a 0-0 this season so note that if somehow this is 0-0 at halftime.
  • Monaco could go to town if we see a replication of the 4 goals scored away v 16th and 19th. At any rate, they have scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 3 away and in 9 all season so we should really expect 2 goals against a newly promoted side.
  • I must mention Amiens strong under 2.5 goals stats They have played only one of the top 8 and that was a 0-2 loss so Monaco could conceivably still score their 2 goals without over 2.5 goals being breached.

19:30 - Stuttgart v Dortmund - 1.69 Dortmund

  • Dortmund have had a recent habit for scoring 3 goals at least in head to heads.
  • Dortmund play Tottenham in the Champions League 21st November and are a team really affected pre-Champions League.

Stuttgart (12th)

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home with 4 wins and a 0-0.
  • 4 clean sheets at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 9 at home.
  • Not scored or conceded first half hour of home matches.

Dortmund (3rd)

  • 3 defeats and a 2-2 last 4 matches, scoring 2 goals at least in 3 of those matches.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only failed to score 2+ goals once away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 6 goals scored away between 16th-31st minute.

Conclusions

  • This is Dortmund's form pre-Champions league this season. 0-0 (draw v 10 men); 6-1 win v Mgladbach; 2-3 loss to Leipzig; 4-2 loss to Hannover; 1-3 loss to Bayern post-Champions league.
  • We have to be so careful with this pre-Champions League Dortmund, particularly away from home.
  • There is a query re Stuttgart's form. They have yet to play top 9 at home so their solid home form needs that context.
  • Dortmund we should expect to see 2 goals at least from (head to heads and away form and pre Champions League form last 3 matches).
  • If Dortmund lead 0-2 you may want to lay them given their 2-3 and 4-2 losses recently. It will be a short odds lay.
  • The fact is an on-form Dortmund should be beating Stuttgart scoring 2/3 goals.

20:00 - Girona v Sociedad - 2.54 Sociedad

  • The market is paying great respect to Girona here against goal-laden Sociedad. I must admit I expected Sociedad to be odds on. The form research will unearth why the market sees Girona as no outsiders.
  • Maybe the reason is Sociedad's impending Europa league match on Thursday.

Girona (10th - yes 10th!!)

  • 4 consecutive 2-1 results, 3 consecutive 2-1 wins including the not too shabby scalp of Real Madrid.
  • 1-0-0-1-2 scored at home recently. 2 goals scored v a pre-Champions League Real Madrid. Slight previous concerns re goalscoring.
  • Only 2 clean sheets masks a vulnerable defence.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 6 -2-1-2-2-1 conceded and against Sociedad that might be dangerous.

Sociedad

  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches this season.
  • Scored 3+ goals in 5 matches this season, 2+ goals in 7 matches this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No draw away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played the top 10 away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.
  • Did beat Alaves away 0-2 but not met the other 2 newcomers away.

Conclusions

  • Girona are in excellent form but their win v Real Madrid was more to do with Real Champions League distractions.
  • I do expect Sociedad to score and at their best to score 2 goals at least.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Sociedad could concede today. I would consider backing 2-1/1-2 as a trading angle given the home for both teams to score and the Girona 2-1 pattern recently.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Dutch Eerste Divisie

19:00 - Cambuur v Fortuna Sittard - 2.02 Cambuur

  • 3-0 Fortuna and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Cambuur (17th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime this season but none at fulltime.
  • Conceded in last 5 at home and last 9 overall.
  • All defeats v top 7.
  • Scored and conceded in 4/5 at home.

Fortuna (3rd)

  • 3 losses.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2-0-6-2-0 scored away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not met 11th and lower away but are unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
  • Although not meeting 11th and lower Fortuna only tend to lose to higher positioned teams so I am with them today.
  • Cambuur tend to score in defeat at home so definitely lay Cambuur should they open the scoring.

19:00 - De Graafschap v NEC Nijmegen - 2.2 De Graafschap

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

De Graaf (5th)

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Have beaten 2nd and 3rd this season.
  • No goal scored first 15 mins of home matches.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

NEC (1st)

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Only 6 wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Lost to 6th away and drew 1-1 with 8th away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Conclusions

  • 2 in-form sides. I would expect 2 goals at least as long as these 2 teams don't cancel each other out.
  • Both teams have a good scoring record so both teams to score looks a good shot. Note NEC are on a strong run of scoring 2 goals. If that continues today, then lay De Graaf if De Graaf scores first.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Volendam - 2.26 Den Bosch

  • 2-5 and 2-1 Volendam last 2 head to heads.

Den Bosch (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 7.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-1 v 18th away and 1-0 v 19th at home. Tend to be less assured v strugglers?
  • Scored first in 5/5 at home and led in 3/5 at home at halftime.

Volendam (20th)

  • Only 1 win came last match.
  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3 away defeats were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • With such contrasting fortunes, you'd think this was easy pickings for Den Bosch. great unbeaten run but tend to struggle v strugglers with 1-1 and 1-0.
  • Volendam have lost 1-0 3 times away so could frustrate. I would still have to be with Den Bosch on form given they are unbeaten in 7.
  • Den Bosch have failed to score only once and had no 0-0, so keep faith in them eventually scoring if Volendam's defence are sturdy today.
  • This match is all about Volendam's defence today. Den Bosch should be confident but this could be attack v defence.

19:00 - Emmen v Almere City - 1.67 Emmen

  • The home team won last year's encounters.

Emmen (9th)

  • Only 2 losses came last 2 away matches.
  • 4 draws and 2 wins last 6 at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • All bar one of the draws has come v top 11 teams.

Almere City (14th)

  • 5 defeats and a 1-1 away.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 10 both teams to score matches this season.
  • All defeats at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 8 away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. In fact, Emmen should be leading by halftime.
  • Strong both teams to score patterns both sides. I would oppose any Almere lead should they score first (statistically unlikely).
  • Almere have lost to all top 8 away. Does that extend to 9th? We shall see. On form, it does.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v MVV Maastricht - 1.94 FC Eindhoven

  • 1-1 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

FC Eindhoven (11th)

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only win v 20th at home.

MVV Maastricht (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 aways.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Strong both teams to score pattern for both teams.
  • Both sides are in not-that-hot-form so I would stick with both teams to score.

19:00 - FC Oss v Helmond Sport - 2.28 FC Oss

  • 3-1 wins for either side last year.

Oss (7th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 2 clean sheets came first 2 matches of the season.
  • 3 under 2.5 goals matches only.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10.
  • Scored and conceded 4 of last 5 at home.
  • All wins this season have come v 15th and lower.

Helmond (16th)

  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 this season.
  • Same as Oss, only 1 clean sheet and failed to score twice.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Only played one of the top 12 away.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong likelihood both teams score.
  • In anticipation of goals, it is not unreasonable to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would not favour any one team. 2-2 tends to be a good trading scoreline with both teams to score.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht - 1.68 Go Ahead

Go Ahead (8th)

  • Only 3 defeats scoring and conceding in them.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Beaten 13th and 14th 2-1.

Dordrecht (15th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.

Conclusions

  • Very strong both teams to score pattern Go Ahead but I think they can come out of this match unbeaten if conceding. Dordrecht have not beaten a top 9 team yet.
  • In anticipation of goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Remember Dordrecht have yet to keep a clean sheet.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Telstar - 2.36 Waalwijk

  • 3 consecutive Waalwijk wins.

Waalwijk (18th)

  • Only 1 win came last home match.
  • 2 clean sheets in a row now!
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.

Telstar (4th)

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten away and unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Wins v 16th and 20th away.
  • Both teams scored in all aways but Telstar unbeaten away.

Conclusions

  • Strange market. Yes I see Waalwijk clean sheets at last and only win of season but contrast with only 1 defeat Telstar and 5 consecutive wins.
  • I have to be with Telstar today despite the strange market putting Waalwijk has favourites (is that because of head to heads?).
  • With Telstar, both teams tend to score away with Telstar not losing. Will that continue against a slightly improved Waalwijk?