Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Not quite a Dortmund 1.01 lay last night as Derby and Tottenham mis-fired when dominating. I have done a shortlist today at DRT Facebook. The key stats are in bold below. If online, I will live chat tonight from 19:45 but I am very wary of Premier League mid-week matches. Why? Look at the fixture list for Man City for example. 29th November; 3rd December; 6th December; 10th December; 13th December. We have already seen chinks in the armour last 2 matches (saved by Sterling). This similar fixture list can also be seen with the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Bournemouth v Burnley - 2.08 Bournemouth

  • 3-2 Burnley, 2-1 Bournemouth in the last 2 head to heads.

Bournemouth (13th)

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets sees 2 wins and a 0-0.
  • Losses v Tottenham and Chelsea were only 1-0 and only 1-2 loss v free-scoring Man City. Some defensive clout here?
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home and unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Burnley (7th)

  • We woz robbed! A late Arsenal penalty stole a deserving point from Burnley but highlighted their lack of attacking strength and negative notion that defending will bring points.
  • Prior to that, 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 2 of 3 defeats have come v top 4 teams.
  • Outside of the top 4 away, 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 win, 0-1 win.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams whose defensive coaches will have big smiles on their faces. 0-0-0-1 conceded recently by Burnley. 3 consecutive clean sheets Bournemouth.
  • Burnley are 7th currently. Bournemouth have lost all matches to top 8. Are Burnley what you would describe as a top 10 team, despite their position (if you know what I mean?).
  • The only time Bournemouth have let loose goals wise was v 2 promoted sides.
  • I foresee difficulty for Bournemouth today. Burnley are very limited in attack and over reliant on defence. So we could see another 1-1 or 0-1.
  • 0-0 for a long period, until halftime and beyond would not surprise given these 2's recent collections of clean sheets.

19:45 - Arsenal v Huddersfield - 1.22 Arsenal

Arsenal (4th)

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0.
  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 6 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Huddersfield (11th)

  • 5 defeats in 7 matches.
  • 2 wins came at home.
  • Not played the top 5 away but failed to score v 6th and 7th.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 6 away matches.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It does look clearcut. Huddersfield are having real trouble scoring goals. Arsenal are scoring 2 goals.
  • We saw v Burnley that Arsenal are vulnerable to a strong defensive force but in conceding 1-2 4-3 v top 6, Huddersfield do not seem as defensively robust as Burnley.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Arsenal keep avoiding it presently. Arsenal tend to score first so the only real angle would be a 0-0 at halftime. Huddersfield have conceded 8/11 goals away in the 2nd half.

19:45 - Chelsea v Swansea - 1.2 Chelsea

  • 2-2 and 3-1 Chelsea in the last 2 head to heads.

Chelsea (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 last 5 matches. The 1-1 was v Liverpool.
  • Prior to that 1-1, 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Losses at home v Burnley and Man City.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Have actually led only once at home at halftime.
  • Only played 1 of the bottom 11 at home so nothing really to gauge whether there are problems v strugglers and their set-ups.
  • BUT have 4 away wins and a loss v Palace v 12th and lower. With home advantage today you'd hope they would be confident.

Swansea (19th)

  • Only 1 away win v Palace.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • v top 10, failed to score in 7/10 matches played home and away.

Conclusions

  • This does look another straightforward home match if Chelsea have their scoring boots. Swansea have trouble even scoring v the top 10.
  • We should expect 2+ goals from Chelsea today. They have had trouble scoring v top 4 teams at home only.

20:00 - Everton v West Ham - 2.42 Everton

  • 2.42 odds suggests we tread warily and I agree. New manager syndrome for both sides and the Moyes connection with both sides muddies the waters here.
  • There is no point in researching West Ham with only 2 games under Moyes.
  • There does seem a gung ho attitude about an Unsworth Everton though, with recent scorelines 2-5 loss to Arsenal; 2-0 loss to Leicester; 3-2 win v Watford; 2-2 v Palace and 4-1 loss to Southampton.
  • At home under Unsworth, just the 3-2 come from behind v Watford.
  • Nothing for me thanks until we see these 2 managers embed their patterns into the teams over more than a handful of matches.

20:00 - Man City v Southampton - 1.2 Man City

  • 1-1 and 0-3 City in the last 2 head to heads.

Man City (1st)

  • It's the Raheem Sterling show. 2 84th+ minute winners for Sterling v Feyenoord and Huddersfield put a gloss on what looked fatigued performances for City. Pep gladioli is your man to buy lottery tickets from. City's first goal was a penalty, their 2nd a very late Sterling winner v Huddersfield.
  • 5-5-7-3-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal v top 13 teams.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home. Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.

Southampton (10th)

  • A sudden 4 goal win at home v Everton masks an attack scoring 2+ goals only 3 times this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats without scoring v top 8.
  • All wins v 16th and lower, mostly at home.

Conclusions

  • Dare I repeat it, this again looks clear cut. There are chinks in City's armour and that is quite simply when Pep Gladioli shuffles the pack. It was apparent v Huddersfield where City did not seem to gel as a team. A late substitution changed a draw into a win and he always has that power.
  • On form, City should lead at halftime and fulltime and score 3+ goals. I say 'on form' as it depends in what mood this City side are in and how many changes have been made with the December fixture congestion nearly upon us.
  • Southampton must be opposed if scoring first. Put their win into context,they have only won v teams 16th and lower.

20:00 - Stoke v Liverpool - 1.59 Liverpool

  • 3 consecutive Liverpool head to head wins saw both teams score.

Stoke (15th)

  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 10 matches and in each of their last 3 matches. We did see 2 2-2 draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.

Liverpool (6th)

  • 3-4-3 goals scored in wins before meeting Chelsea for a 1-1.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3-1-3-1-1-4 goals scored away.
  • 3-5-2-1-4-1 conceded away.
  • No 0-0 and no 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only defeats  were v top 5 teams away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool like meeting Stoke in recent history. With only 2 clean sheets, Stoke are likely to concede again v a Liverpool tending towards 3 goals v teams 8th and lower.
  • Lay the late 0-0 and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • We really should expect 2 goals from Liverpool if form is upheld. Do not discount a Stoke goal or 2. Even so, Stoke should still not win.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Lyon v Lille - 1.34 Lyon

  • Lyon are THE goal merchants in France. Superb recent performances and the market has reacted. You could have backed Lyon at 2.4+ in their last match where they scored 5 goals!!
  • Lille, Lyon, Lille in the last 3 head to heads.

Lyon (2nd)

  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3-3-3-5-2-5-0-5 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins at home v bottom 6 teams.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 home match.
  • 9 goals scored at home first half hour of matches.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.
  • Fekir and Mejia have scored 13 home goals between them. I would be keen to see these 2 playing and would see a negative if one or both was not playing.

Lille (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • In 4 matches now, at least one team has scored 3 goals.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v bottom of the league.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/7 away.

Conclusions

  • There is no ignoring this lethal Lyon attack. They should, on form, score first today and thus negate any real trading angles. Lille are in poor form and I would back Lyon if Lille scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lyon are expected to score 2 goals at least today.

18:00 - Metz v Marseille - 1.57 Marseille

  • 5 Marseille head to head wins ended with a Metz win last match.

Metz (20th)

  • Only 1 win hence bottom of the league.
  • Failed to score in 9 of their last 13 matches.
  • Never scored a 2nd goal in a home match.
  • 7 consecutive home defeats.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 6/7 home matches.

Marseille

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 away matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • v bottom 4 away, 2 wins and a draw. 3-4-1 goals scored. 3-2-0- goals conceded.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay Metz if Metz score first. They cannot score that 2nd goal at home.
  • Marseille are highly likely to score first so we may not get a trading angle.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Marseille should remain unbeaten this match.

18:00 - Nantes v Monaco - 2.12 Monaco

  • 4 Monaco 1-0s, a 0-0 and then a 4-0 Monaco win broke that pattern in the last 6 head to heads.

Nantes (5th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home, 3 0-0's.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 at home v top 4.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home.

Monaco (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came v top 2.
  • Not met 4th-9th away so not much to gauge against as they do play top 5 today.

Conclusions

  • Nantes could get a goal today. But scoring and conceding in 5 of their last 6 matches, they might concede.
  • Monaco have failed to score only once so expect a goal.

18:00 - Angers v Rennes - 2.16 Angers

  • 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Angers (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No home win.
  • 3 losses in 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in those 3 recent losses at home.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Not won at halftime at home.
  • Only met 2 of the top 12 at home.
  • No 0-0.

Rennes (9th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches 3 of those wins were 1-0.
  • No 0-0.
  • Have actually lost away to 14th, 15th and 17th!
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • French Ligue 1. Not my favourite league. This is a messy match. What is up with Rennes losing away to 14th-17th? They play 16th today.
  • Angers have kept only 2 clean sheets so expect them to concede?

20:00 - Paris St-G v ESTAC Troyes - 1.07 PSG

  • 13 goals scored by PSG in the last 2 head to heads.
  • PSG have scored between 2-6 goals in every home match.
  • Troyes have had 3 1-0 defeats v 5th-7th and are yet to meet the top 5. Lyon put 5 past Troyes AT Troyes so that gives us an idea.
  • Expect PSG to go to down. Not many angles unless Troyes revert to their defensive set us as per the 5th-7th.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.31 Celtic

  • these 2 met at the weekend in the Scottish Cup with Celtic winning with second half scoring.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 Celtic wins in head to heads.

Motherwell (5th)

  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2 0-1 defeats in 3 at home.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 0-1, 0-1, 1-2 losses at home v top 4.

Celtic

  • Unbeaten.
  • 100% wins away.
  • 8 clean sheets this season.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • Very recent form sees Celtic score 2 goals 2nd half to win 0-2 in the Cup. Slightly wary of recent form as the losing side can take a more defensive stance to avoid another defeat.
  • On form, Motherwell set themselves up to be hard to beat, but inevitably concede v top 4 and that should be expected today.
  • On form Celtic should win to nil, or if Motherwell score, at least score one more than them.

19:45 - Rangers v Aberdeen - 2.14 Rangers

  • 0-3 Rangers and 1-2 Aberdeen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This match could be too tight to call between current 2nd best and Rangers who are getting better with each season's return to the SPL.

Rangers (4th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats. And against teams they should ordinarily beat.
  • Only 2 home wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Have lost at home to 1st and 3rd, conceding 2 goals at least.

Aberdeen (2nd)

  • Unbeaten away from home.
  • 0-1 away wins v 3rd and 5th.
  • Only 2 defeats came at home v 1st and 5th.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2-2-0-3 goals scored in their last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • I think Rangers are vulnerable again today. Aberdeen are scoring 2+ goals in recent matches. Rangers are losing 1-goal-in-it matches v top 3 teams.
  • I will lay Rangers if Rangers score first.