In-play research a key skill to learn.
Let me take you back to Tuesday this week. I thought I’d do a little Twitter live chat @drtclub – and that turned out to be one of my better decisions.
Let’s focus on a specific match. It was Palermo v Ascoli, Italian Seria B.
You may have noticed that in Tuesday’s DRT Bulletin this match was not actually part of that day’s research. But it was one of the most profitable matches on the day to trade.
I noticed that Ascoli took a 0-1 lead in this Italian Seria B match.
I noticed too that Palermo were odds-on favourites.
When you notice a scenario like this, think… www.soccerstats.com.
The fact that I did not research this match in advance doesn’t mean I cannot do some basic research in-play.
And that’s exactly what I did…
The best way to do basic research is via what I call the Challenge Table. Here’s Palermo and Ascoli’s Challenge Tables:
A simple look at the Challenge Tables should have told you that Ascoli away from home tend to concede 3+ goals versus the top 12.
Palermo at home versus the bottom sides tend to score 2-4 goals.
Now, only armed with that two-minute (at a stretch) research, you can create an ‘angle’ in-play .
What would you have opted for in this match? (Pretending you haven’t seen the score!)
- A Lay of Ascoli? Good call. Basic approach and highly likely to come in.
- A back of Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 Goals? I like the way you think. Pre-empt a Palermo recovery and keep this neutral so both teams are included.
- Back 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, and any other home score? Good work. I like the fact you included Ascoli potentially scoring a second goal. This is the approach I took. And the profits were sealed by a fourth Palermo goal.
Now, this is not difficult is it? With a simple in-play check, you can get as much as a 12/1 return on the match!
So… how do you know a team was an odds-on favourite pre-match? Good question. This is not apparent at the scores sites.
What I would recommend you do is to visit www.flashscore.com and look at the major countries’ leagues, and just get to know any matches featuring an odds-on favourite at home. Or head off to a bookmaker’s website and search out their acca or banker coupon.
Here is Ladbrokes:
You’ll notice in the five-team acca insurance coupon, a number of odds-on favourites, particularly at home. List these pre-match. I call it the ‘shorties list’.
So today, for instance, we see Nice, Middlesbrough and Monaco as strong home odds-on favourites. Monchengladbach not so much.
Just be aware of their status as odds-on favourites at home. Do that in lesser leagues too from the elite countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, Eng-er-land, etc).
And at somewhere like www.totalcorner.com/match/today you can check pre-match odds by clicking on the ‘C’ in the far-right corner.
Total Corner (you’ll recall) is a great free live stats resource.
So, please remember that just because I have not researched a match, it does not mean that match has no trading angles.
Get to know the odds-on favourites at home (or at least have a list ready). This is something I will try to incorporate for you at the DRT Facebook page. It will highlight teams like Palermo.
What I would do with the shorties is to tick them at www.flashscore.com so they are available in the ‘My Games’ list. This way you can monitor in case something like Ascoli taking a lead occurs.
Then, head to www.soccerstats.com, check out the Challenge Tables and formulate your ‘angle in’.
See you over the weekend for a possible Champions-League-affected set of matches. There’ll be a live chat webinar as usual too, so watch out for more details.