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Review of yesterday’s matches.

3:30pm – Montana v Ludogorets – 1.51 away

  • a standard DRT here as Montana scored first, and Ludogorets equalised soon after. Ludogorets then got a red card. The match ended 1-1. If Montana were red-carded, I would have been interested – see Paris St Germain a bit later on.

6pm – Sandefjord v Mjondalen – 2.24 home

  • Ahh, every trustworthy Mjondalen.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score – 1-1 at halftime
  • Both teams to score – 2-1 Sandefjord win.
  • An excellent side so far, Mjondalen. How long can they continue to be so readable?

6pm – Valerenga v Tromso – 1.72 home

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score was successful.
  • Both teams did not score. 1-0 final score.
  • No DRT for me. I wanted Tromso to score.

7:30pm – Lille v Paris St-G – 1.85 away

  • 0-0 at halftime.
  • PSG had a man sent off in the 28th minute. Now this is the dilemma for us as traders. The market was not overtly concerned with this red card. PSG scored a 2nd half goal and won 0-1. As I said in the research, PSG have a solid defence.
  • Did you take a chance at halftime and expect a goal 2nd half?  It is a good sign that PSG can win with 10 men for an hour in the match.

7:45pm – Dundalk v Longford – 1.19 home banker

  • A 41st minute red card to Longford should have signalled a Dundalk win. 0-0 the final score so no successful DRT here.

7:45pm – Rangers v St Mirren – 1.6 home

  • 2-1 to Rangers at halftime. St Mirren missed a penalty in the 2nd half. The match could have been 2-2.
  • It ended 3-1. This is a good sign for Rangers for this Scottish Championship. I see the title as being between Hibs and Rangers.  Will Rangers be good 0-0 halftime score lays this season?

 

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

1245pm – Man Utd v Tottenham – 1.67 home

Standout stats

  • 1-2 Tottenham ( Spurs for short), 0-0 and 3-0 Man Utd in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 5th from last season’s Premiership.
  • There are no major losses for Man Utd this season, Robin Van Persie has moved to Fenerbahce after a really poor Man Utd season last season.
  • There are some interesting signings for United, the most famous of which are Memphis De Pay from PSV. He is a class act in the Dutch Eredivisie, but is this weak league form necessarily transferrable to the Premiership.
  • Schweinsteiger from Bayern Munich is an interesting signing, and for the same price, Darmian from Torino. Schneiderlin, the dutch connection with the manager, is the most expensive signing at 35 million euro.
  • Paulinho is the biggest eyecatcher leaving Spurs. They have been very quiet as compared with United in the transfer window, with the biggest spend Alderweireld from Atletico.
  • Last season at home, United drew only 2 matches, v top 3 sides. They lost to Southampton, Swansea and West Brom.
  • Tottenham only got going away v teams outside the top 10. They did not beat any top 10 team away last season, conceding in all matches.Spurs tended to concede 2 goals v top 10 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Transfers in put United at a clear advantage spend-wise. Spurs last season tended to concede 2+ goals against the top 10 and then dominate outside top 10 teams away from home. This therefore puts things in Man Utd’s favour this season.
  • Harry Kane remains for Spurs so that is a coup .
  • I do not expect Man Utd to lose today at home, if last season is a good indication.

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1pm – Juventus v Lazio  – 2.16 home

Standout stats

  • This is a glorified friendly, the Italian Super Cup, being played in China.
  • Juventus are unbeaten in the last 7 head to heads, latterly the Coppa Italia which saw Lazio score first and Juventus soon equalise.
  • If this match was being played in Turin, Juventus would be a lot shorter odds than they are today.
  • As I am doing this match on the live chat at delayreacttrade.com I think it is the perfect match in which to make decisions via inplay stats as I will show you.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Cautious odds for Juventus who would ordinarily be priced much shorter. Likely this will be played in “friendly” mode.Juventus are unbeaten in the last 2 Super Cups.
  • A match for in-play stats to act as prompters . I will favour Juventus and hope in-play stats back that up. Come along to the live chat and see how I do it.

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23opm – Duisburg v Schalke -1.6 away

Standout stats

  • This is a German Cup match between 2 Bundesliga Duisberg and Bundesliga side Schalke.
  • There are no recent head to heads.

Duisburg

  • 4 consecutive losses, 2 in friendlies and 2 in the league.
  • 3 consecutive home losses , 2 in friendlies v Bochum and Porto.
  • Only 3 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • Lost 0-5 to Schalke in 2011 in the Cup.

Schalke

  • Only recently played friendlies.
  • Only 2 losses in 19 Cup matches but since that excellent run, Schalke have lost 2 matches in the cup v Hoffenheim and Dynamo Dresden.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 cup matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • A low key German Cup match. Logic dictates that we side with the Bundesliga team Schalke against their lower league opponents.
  • No strong angles here for me.

230pm – SV Meppen v FC Koln – 1.34 away

230pm – Sportfreunde Lotte v Leverkusen – 1.19 away

230pm – Stuttgart Kickers v Wolfsburg  – 1.24 away

English Premiership

3pm – Bournemouth v Aston Villa  – 2.08 home

Standout stats

  • Bournemouth are newly promoted. Bournemouth have made 3 purchases for this new Premiership season.  Bournemouth won the Championship by 1 point last year. They lost only 3 home matches last season.
  • Aston Villa have sold Christian Benteke , who was their top scorer last season with 13 goals. Their transfers into the club are not expensive, nor are they household names.
  • Aston Villa only had 2 draws away from home last season.5 away wins last season for Aston Villa saw them keep clean sheets. 4 of those 5 wins were 0-1.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • A watching brief is a must here, to see how a) Bournemouth perform at home in their first Premiership match and b) how Aston Villa are going to perform without their star striker.  In-play stats will play a big role in trading this match.

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3pm – Everton v Watford  – 1.75 home

Standout stats

  • There are no recent head to heads. Watford are newcomers to the Premiership.
  • Tom Cleverley is an interesting free signing for Everton in a very quiet pre-season transfer window for the Liverpool side.
  • Everton came 11th last season in the Premiership.
  • Everton at home were a team of 2 halves last season. 4 of Everton’s 5 home defeats last season came against teams above them in the league. Everton lost only 1 match against 12th and lower in the league at home.  Can we assume that Watford will be a lower half side this season?
  • Watford came 2nd last season in the Championship.  Watford last season only won 1 match away to top 10 sides. Does this suggest greater struggles against a Premiership top 11 side away from home?

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • We cannot use any form currently. Everton are favoured today on the basis of their home form last season against bottom half sides in the premiership, as well as Watford’s away form in the Championship against top 10 sides.
  • A watching brief is advised, as is a look at in-play stats. www.bet365.com is excellent for in-play stats.

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3pm – Leicester v Sunderland – 2.02 home

Standout stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0’s in head to heads in 2014 and 2015 suggests another tight match in prospect today.
  • Leicester have spent in the Transfer window. They have made 2 11 million euro buys in Okazaki from Mainz and Kramaric from Rijeka. 2 unknown players .
  • Sunderland have sold Conor Wickham to Crystal Palace and brought in , as their most expensive buy, Lens from Dinamo Kiev.Kaboul is a well-known addition for Sunderland too .
  • This is 14th v 16th from last season. Two teams who were mired in a relegation battle for the majority of last season and as we can see from the transfer business, lack the resources to really make a push for the top 10.
  • Leicester at home last season were unbeaten v 15th and lower in the league, suggesting a degree of confidence against Sunderland and their ilk this season. 4 of Leicester’s 7 defeats at home last season were 0-1 , including Manchester City and a 1-1 v Arsenal so they are set up at home to be tough to beat.
  • Sunderland only won 3 away matches last season, and did draw 5 matches 0-0 away from home, including against Leicester City. 5 of their 7 defeats away from home last season came against the top 7 sides. The 2 defeats outside of the top 7 were 1-0 defeats. Do we see a pattern emerging here against teams other-than-the-elite?Against other than top 8 sides away last season, Sunderland only conceded 2 goals in a single match on one occasion.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • If last season’s form is transferable to this opener, then expect a defensively driven match today. Surely it would be a stretch to expect another 0-0. It is not beyond the realms of possibility. I would lay any late 0-0 – say after 80+ minutes and hope this head to head sequence ends.

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3pm – Norwich v C Palace – 2.68 home

Standout stats

  • These 2 last met in January 2014. Norwich are newly promoted to the Premiership.
  • Crystal Palace finished top 10 last season. They bought Conor Wickham from Sunderland, and  Cabaye from PSG as the main buys.
  • Against teams below them in the league last season, Crystal Palace only lost 1 match.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • The market is very strange. I would have thought , with the finish they had last season under Alan Pardew, that Crystal Palace would be an odds on favourite today. The market is very cautious though and cannot split these 2 sides.  I do note that Palace were strong away from home against teams below them in the league . Dare we assume that Norwich will be a bottom half team?
  • A watching brief for me. Join me on the live chat at delayreacttrade.com where I will slightly favour Palace and hope that the stats in-play back this up.

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3pm – Charlton v QPR – 2.54 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

3pm – Hull v Huddersfield – 1.73 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

Scottish Premier League (SPL).

The odds for the following SPL are such that they suggest any research without form is not worth doing on this occasion. The betting market cannot split these teams. Any favourite at odds of 2.5 or higher in the match odds market is a favourite only because there has to be a favourite! My focus early in the SPL will be on Aberdeen and Celtic initially. Join me on the Live Chat today and I will focus on these matches via in-play stats which I hope will be the divisor between these teams.

3pm – Dundee v Hearts – 2.56 away

3pm – Motherwell v Dundee Utd – 2.68 home

3pm – Ross Co v Hamilton – 2.2 home

3pm – St Johnstone v Inverness CT – 2.64 home

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3pm – Dumbarton v Hibernian – 1.52 away

Standout stats

  • Like Rangers, Hibs will be rather vexed that they did not win promotion from this Scottish Championship last season.
  • This, for me, makes Hibs strong favourites for a top 2 finish this season.
  • This is 7th v 2nd from last year’s Scottish Championship.
  • 0-0, 3-6 Hibs, 3-0 Hibs and 1-2 Hibs in the last season head to heads.
  • Last season Dumbarton did not win a match against top 4 sides home or away. Do remember that these teams play each other several times so the form is franked.
  • Hibs lost only 1 match home and away last season v teams 7th and lower ( Dumbarton are 7th remember).

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • I expect a strong performance from Hibs this season. To finish 2nd and still remain in the Scottish Championship must be so frustrating. Dumbarton struggled against top 4 last season. I think Hibs are potential top 2 so I expect Hibs not to lose today. That is my angle into this match. As you can appreciate we cannot be definitive with these early season matches which is why I use the term “favour” for a specific side.

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5pm – 1860 Munich v Hoffenheim – 1.7 away

Standout stats

  • The only recent head to head we have is a Hoffenheim 3-0 friendly win.
  • This is the German Cup between 2 Bundesliga 1860 and Bundesliga team Hoffenheim.
  • Liverpool fans will know that Hoffenheim’s Firmino has been bought by the Reds for 41 million euro. He scored 7 goals last season in a season in which the top scorer scored 8 goals.
  • 1860 Munich don’t tend to perform well in the German Cup against top sides. Their wins are against lower league outfits.
  • The last 3 home cup matches saw 2 defeats and a draw , losing in extra time v Dortmund.
  • Only 3 draws for Hoffenheim since October 2007 in the German Cup suggests we could avoid the draw again?
  • Since 2013, only Wolfsburg and Dortmund have beaten Hoffenheim in this competition. 2-3 v Wolfsburg and 2-2 v Dortmund, where Dortmund won in extra time.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • I am not sure what the impact will be for Hoffenheim with the absence of Firmino, who Liverpool shelled out 41 million euro for. He must have been a key player for the Hoff.
  • The form,as limited as it is, suggests we may avoid a draw today? Lay any late draw therefore, post 75th minute.
  • Hoffenheim have a solid enough cup record apart from 2 of the big 3 in the Bundesliga. I expect the Hoff to equalise if 1860 score first.

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530pm – Chelsea v Swansea – 1.37 home

Standout stats

  • 1-0 to the Chelsea. Is this the new chant at Stamford Bridge?
    Rather like Dinamo Zagreb in the league at home, I believe Jose Mourinho went 7+ years without losing a home league match in teams from Porto onwards. He lost that record at Chelsea if I recall.
  • Chelsea scored 9 goals in the last 2 head to heads against Swansea.
  • Let’s take a look at the transfers for both teams this season.
  • Schurrle is out, as is Petr Cech, the excellent talent Kakuta, and Felipe Luis. We have some very interesting signings in the form of Radoma Falcao , the erm, faltering ,er goal machine from Manchester United, and Cuadrado from Fiorentina.
  • The signing of Falcao , at first glance, looks like a piece of poor business. The player is in poor form but is a loan. The stroke of genius ( potentially) is in the reforming of the Falcao and Costa partnership from Atl Madrid.  When these 2 were at Atl Madrid last, Falcao scored 28 goals and Costa 10 goals. What Mourinho will be hoping is that these 2 click again. It was only a couple of seasons ago!!
  • Swansea sold Bony for 35 million euro to Manchester City. Bony was their top scorer with 9 goals last season in a team without an established striker. They have made some interesting signings from big clubs such as Benfica and Napoli who could prove a success but that is conjecture.
  • Chelsea were unbeaten at home last season with all wins bar 4 1-1 draws.
  • Swansea lost 9 of 13 away matches last season v top 14 sides. They recorded the double last season against Arsenal and Manchester United but by the same token, conceded 9 goals against Chelsea in 2 matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • I am siding with Chelsea’s ability not to lose at home. It is a great DRT angle for the season. Chelsea did find themselves conceding first last season and not losing. Swansea’s new signings are an unknown. Expect Chelsea not to lose today. More in-depth stats will follow as the season progresses.

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Dutch Erevidisie

645pm – Roda JC v Heracles – 2.24 home

730pm – Reutlingen v Karlsruhe – illiquid 1.06 away

745pm – Feyenoord v Utrecht – 1.49 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

French Ligue 1.

8pm – Marseille v Caen – 1.6 home

Standout stats

  • last year Marseille won 1-2 away at Caen and Caen won 2-3 at Marseille. Marseille led in both matches. Infact they led 2-0 at home and lost! They needed a 90th minute winner at Caen.
  • this is 4th v 13th from the French Ligue 1 last year.
  • Marseille only lost 4 matches at home last year. Marseille scored 2+ goals in 16 home matches last season.
  • Caen only won 4 matches home and away v teams 12th and higher last season so probability wise, they are unlikely to win this match if this form is carried forward to this new season. Caen conceded at least 2 goals away to the top 4 last season.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • There is little current form of course, to work with. The head to heads do point to a Marseille vulnerability when meeting Caen and the potential for both teams to score. We do expect Caen to concede 2 goals as they have done against top 4 and not to win. Their win away to Marseille was one of only 4, as I say, home and away v top 12. If we can take this on trust, then it is highly likely that Caen will not win today. Is this enough to bring into this opening league match? Lay Caen if they score first?

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8pm – Montpellier v Angers – 1.8 home

Standout stats

  • These 2 sides have not met since 2009.
  • This suggests that Angers are newly promoted to the French Ligue 1.
  • Montpellier finished a creditable 7th in French Ligue 1 last season. All of Montpellier’s losses at home last season came against top 8 sides. This suggests an ability to cope with a newly promoted side.
  • Angers finished 3rd last season. They only won 1 match last season away to French Ligue 2 top 13 sides.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Very little to work with and there is always a threat that a newly promoted side will play above themselves. On form, though, it took a top 8 side to beat Montpellier at home and if they have kept the same personnel this season, this could continue. You would have to favour Montpellier on the limited form available.

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8pm – Nice v Monaco – 2.18 away

Standout stats

  • This is a Cote D’azur derby in the French Ligue 1 which starts today.
  • These matches have been very tight. We see 3 consecutive 1-0 wins, 2 for Monaco and one for Nice.
  • I am not going to research this match in the traditional sense as it is a derby and quite clearly is a match that both sides feel they can win.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • how will I approach this match? It is a mystery as it is the opening match of the season for both sides. Monaco have made 50 million euro worth of sales for just 2 players so obviously they were good players. Will they be missed?
  • I would look at the head to heads and look to lay any 0-0 score if the match remains 0-0 coming into the 75th minute +. Both sides will be seeking a little one-upmanship on the Cote D’azur.

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