Europa League first leg matches today. Quite simply the in-play stats and the market is key here. Research is futile. I have made mention of a few matches below but would urge you to take your cues from the freely available inplay stats at www.flashscore.com ( Live centre) and www.williamhill.com ( yes a bookie but superb inplay stats coverage). At this stage of the season it is in-play stats which take the place of form. They were highly effective yesterday in showing you even 9 French ladies could equalise v 11 (wo)man Switzerland and the Austrian ladies would score before halftime.

17:00 – Mlada Boleslav v Skenderbeu – 1.5 Mlada

Czech v Albania
No draw yet for Mlada in recent Europa League matches. Lay any late draw could be an angle here?
Mlada beat Shamrock Rovers home and away in their 2017 campaign opener.
Skenderbeu has beaten Andorran and Kazak sides to get here.
Inplay stats reveal all.

17:30 – Olimpik Donetsk v PAOK – 1.72 PAOK

Ukraine v Greece in this Europa League match
Olimpik are debutants in this competition.
PAOK are an experienced Europa League side.
Inplay stats will solve this with a slight nod to the Greeks.

17:30 – Trakai v Shkendija – 2.6 Shk

2 names better served on a scrabble board and a market which cannot split these 2, in a competition as tough as the Europa League.
Inplay stats if I play at all.

17:45 – Maccabi Tel Aviv v Panionios – 1.57 Maccabi

5 consecutive wins for Maccabi Tel Aviv and they only lost one in their recent Europa League matches.
Maccabi tend to score at home and scored 2+ in 8 of 9 home matches in this competition. As ever, it is hard to equate the teams they played as against today’s Greek opponents.
Panionios were last in the Europa League in 2007.
Faith in Maccabi’s solid 2 goals a game in the Europa League at home?

17:45 – AEK Larnaca v Dinamo Minsk – 1.66 AEK

Cyprus v Belarus
Gibraltar and Irish sides beaten so far this Europa League campaign for AEK
Faroe and Macedonian for Minsk.
Inplay stats for me

18:00 – AIK v Braga – 2.42 Braga

4 consecutive clean sheets so far for AIK. They tend to do 0-0 away and clean sheet wins at home…..so far. The market expects a tougher encounter for this Swedish side v the Portugeuse.

18:00 – FK Suduva v Sion – 1.58 Sion

Lithuania v Switzerland
Sion seem to be in the Europa League yearly and meet some high profile sides such as Fenerbahce, Celtic, Bordeaux and Liverpool
It is this experience which suggests we side with the market today.

18:00 – Ostersunds FK v Fola Esch – 1.33 Ostersunds

Switzerland v Luxembourg
Ostersunds are new to the Europa League but started very well in dispatching Galatasary. They are worthy favourites against a side from a country with weak football pedigree.
Ostersunds took 68th and 90th minute to score v Galatasary. I do expect them to wear down Fola Esch.

18:00 – PSV v Osijek – 1.23 PSV

PSV were last in the Europa League in 2015 and failed to score in defeats to Dinamo Moscow, and Zenit
Osijek were last in the Europa League in 2012
So far this term,they have progressed past Andorran and Swiss teams,
There is a general feeling that the likes of Rijeka, Dinamo Zagreb and Osijek, whilst strong domestically, fall drastically short outside of Croatia.
We should expect a PSV side more used to the Champions League, to dominate and win today.

18:00 – Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce – 2.18 Fenerbahce

Austria v Turkey. Fenerbahce would prefer Champions League football I am sure.
Fenerbahce’s strengths lie at home, the beating of the likes of Man Utd ( a weakened Man Utd granted) attests to that.
Sturm Graz were last in the Europa League in 2015 and failed to win. They have an unenviable 7 match losing sequence at home, over the years, in this competition
In 6 of the last 7 away, Fenerbahce has scored at least one goal

18:00 – Utrecht v Lech Poznan – 1.97 Utrecht

Holland v Poland
Utrecht was last in the Europa League in 2013. Lech was last in the competition 2015
Very little to go on

18:30 – Astra Giurgiu v Oleksandria – 2.3 Astra

Romania v Ukraine here and 2 of the lesser lights in each league
This is Olek’s 2nd year . In 2016 HJK knocked them out with 2 wins.
Astra seem to have the greater experience in the Europa League, holding the likes of Roma to 0-0 at home. On that basis only, a tentative nod towards the home side.

18:30 -Bnei Yehuda v Zenit St Petersburg – 1.31 Zenit

I like Zenit St Petersburg as a trading vehicle, be in in the Russian Premier League or here in the Europa League.
Provided they are up for this competition, they really should have too much for this relatively unknown Israeli side, over 2 legs.
Bnei were last in this competition in 2012
Slight concern that Zenit lost to AZ and Anderlecht in this competition, teams from leagues I would have thought Zenit would be competitive with.
Zenit beat Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 last year. Something to gauge against another Israeli side?

18:30 -Botev Plovdiv v Maritimo – 2.48 Maritimo

18:30 -Dinamo Bucharest v Athletic Bilbao – 1.54 Ath

Dinamo were last in the Europa League in 2012. Ath Bilbao scored 5-3-1-3-0 recently in the Europa League albeit conceded 3-2-1-2-2 goals. This does hint to me at a second team put out by Bilbao.
As with Milan, we might see a first team treating this as something of a pre-season pipe-opener.
We should certainly see goals today as Bilbao look very attack minded. I would have to favour them on experience today.

19:00 – Arka Gdynia v FC Midtjylland – 1.91 FC

19:00 – Brondby v Hajduk Split – 1.96 Brondby

19:00 – CS Uni Craiova v AC Milan – 1.3 AC Milan

Romania v Italy and the only thing that will beat AC Milan over 2 legs is their actual desire to have a Europa League campaign. Top clubs tend to have a habit of playing peripheral players in this competition. Were they to play the First Team they would likely have a great chance of winning the competition. As Seria A is yet to start, we may see as near to a first team as possible for AC Milan today.
CS make their Europa League debut.

18:00 – FK Krasnodar v Lyngby – 1.29 FK

Russia v Denmark in this Europa League match.
Only 1 win in 8 Europa League matches for FK suggests they are limited. They played the likes of Schalke, Nice, Fenerbahce, and Celta.
Lyngby played Bangor City and Slovan Bratislava so far.
The Russian Season is just starting as is the Danish season. The market sides firmly with the Russians.

19:30 – Bordeaux v Videoton – 1.37 Bord

Bordeaux were last in the Europa League in 2015
Videoton are unbeaten in 5 matches getting past a Maltese and Croatian side. Bordeaux should be a step up.

19:30 – Crvena Zvezda v Sparta Prague – 2.44 Crvena

19:30 – Gent v SCR Altach – 1.43 Gent

Belgium v Austria in a battle of 2 peripheral European leagues.
gent are recently experienced in the Europa League – total goals in matches last year? – 5-8-4-1-1-4-7-2
Gent scored and conceded in their last 2 Europa League matches
Gent scored in their last 7 home matches in the Europa League and in 6 of their last 7 matches, they scored 2 goals at least.
Altach are unreadable at the moment. Gent seem to have goals in them and I think they can react positively to going behind should that happen.

19:30 – Panathinaikos v FK Qabala – 1.52 Pana

Greece v Azerbaijan
No win in 7 Europa League matches for Pana saw them fail to score in 4 of 5. They played the likes of Celta, Ajax, and Standard Liege
Qabala beat a Polish side in their 2017 campaign.In 2016 they were, like Pana, out of their depth with 6 losses
These 2 will not be going far in the Europa League. Inplay stats will determine any play

19:45 – Aberdeen v Apollon Limassol – 2.16 Aberdeen

Aberdeen were undone by Maribor last year in the Europa League. So far they drew at home and won away v a Bosnian side.
Apollon beat a Moldovan side. Inplay stats again here.

19:45 – Dinamo Zagreb v Odds BK – 1.25 Dinamo

Dinamo Zagreb were last in the Europa League in 2014 where they lost to Celtic and Salzburg
That betrays poor relative form from the Croatians.
Odds are a Norwegian Eliteserien side.4 consecutive clean sheet wins so far this campaign v Ballymena United and Vaduz.
Little to work with bar the market and in-play stats. We know all about Dinamo Zagreb’s home record in the league. Will that give them a boost in the Europa League? The market thinks so.

19:45 – Marseille v Oostende – 1.34 Marseille

Oostende’s first venture into the Europa League.Marseille could not get past Atl Bilbao last year in this competition but are clearly the team from the better league.
Bar ring rustiness we should expect a home win today. Oostende do present an element of the unknown though.

20:05 – Austria Vienna v A.E.L. – 1.6 Austria

Austria Vienna scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 Europa League matches
They played Plzen and Roma last year and got little out of it.
No Europa League for A.E.L since 2014. Wins this year v St Joseph’s and Progres
Austria Vienna has met the classier opponents this Europa League ( accounting for weaker sides put out by the likes of Roma).
They may score and concede so lay A.E.L if A.E.L scores first

20:05 – Everton v Ruzomberok – 1.12 Everton

Everton rewarded for a great domestic season with this Europa League berth. They take on a Slovakian side.
Everton were last in the Europa League in 2015 where they scored and conceded in 4 consecutive matches, winning 3. I seem to remember that a less than first team squad was sent out for those matches.
Everton are by far and away the highest level team Ruz has met on their Europa League adventures.
Minus Romelu Lukaku, where are the goals going to come? The market expects 3/4 minimum

20:05 – Freiburg v Domzale – 1.26 Freiburg

Germany v Slovenia in this first round Europa League match
Freiburg were last in the Europa League in 2013.
The highlight for Domzale last year was beating West Ham at home. They beat Flora and Valur so far this Europa League campaign home and away
Little to work with for the home side bar the market which expects a comfortable home win

TENNIS

ATP Hamburg – clay

Benoit Paire v Nicolas Kicker – 1.52 Paire

‘ooh what a lovely’ Paire has tended to be reliable for trading when favourite
49th v 95th
Paire’s last 4 clay court events saw him out in the first round.Not since Casablanca has he gone deep into a tournament
Kicker has been plying his trade mostly in clay, even in the grass court season.Quarter finalist in Lyon beating some eyecatching names, he lost to 1.17 shot Foggy recently in 3 sets.
We might see Kicker be competitive here. I would , and I stress the word, speculatively lay Paire if he wins first set. He may not be ‘ooh what a lovely’ Paire on Clay

Federico Delbonis v David Ferrer – 1.54 Ferrer

like Wozniacki I do tend to gravitate to a David Ferrer match particularly when he is favourite. What you get ALL the time is 100%
98th v 32nd. Yes Ferrer has been top 10 and his rankings are tanking but he is 3-0 in head to heads and won this year in bastad on clay
He actually won the final in Bastad so on that basis alone, I am with Ferrer here and would happily back him at 1.8 or higher for trading purposes

Karen Khachanov v Aljaz Bedene – 1.76 Karen

little really to gain from Karen and Bedene’s wins. Both around 1.1 shots.
56th v 68th
As you know, I like Karen , the man with the woman’s name. He is a fighter.
Bedene is an up and coming Brit.
Karen has won in 2016 in 3 setters and the odds suggest a 3 setter today. It does have the feel of a ‘lay the first set winner’ match
Indeed looking at these 2’s recent matches, it suggests that they tend not to win 2-0.

Horacio Zeballos v Jiri Vesely – 1.56 Vesely

Philipp Kohlschreiber v Gilles Simon – 1.47 Kohl

a german in Germany and time and again we see this ‘Heather’ factor.
31st v 30th. The rankings could not be tighter.
Last head to head was in Tokyo and Simon ended a 2-0 Kohl run.Kohl won here in Hamburg last year in 2 sets

Leonardo Mayer v Jan-Lennard Struff – 1.74 Struff

ATP Gstaad – clay

Paolo Lorenzi v Ernests Gulbis – 1.76 Gulbis

Norbert Gombos v Fabio Fognini – 1.28 Foggy

105th v 29th
no head to heads

Feliciano Lopez v Yannick Hanfmann – 1.48 Lopez

a real pity Lopez retired first round at Wimbledon because, like Gilles Muller, this guy is a class act on grass.
40th v 262nd
no head to heads
Winner in Gstaad last year, if Lopez is recovered ( he has played no tennis since the retirement) then he will be competitive.
It takes a big name to beat Lopez on clay.
Potential injury niggle clouds the match

Henri Laaksonen
Joao Sousa
£3,602

2.36
£3

2.42
£56

1.71
£53

1.73
£4
View all ATP Gstaad 2017

Daily Bulletin Thursday 27th July 2017 – draft