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Europa League first leg matches today. Quite simply the in-play stats and the market is key here. Research is futile. I have made mention of a few matches below but would urge you to take your cues from the freely available inplay stats at www.flashscore.com ( Live centre) and www.williamhill.com ( yes a bookie but superb inplay stats coverage). At this stage of the season it is in-play stats which take the place of form. They were highly effective yesterday in showing you even 9 French ladies could equalise v 11 (wo)man Switzerland and the Austrian ladies would score before halftime.

17:00 – Mlada Boleslav v Skenderbeu – 1.5 Mlada

  • Czech v Albania
  • No draw yet for Mlada in recent Europa League matches. Lay any late draw could be an angle here?
  • Mlada beat Shamrock Rovers home and away in their 2017 campaign opener.
  • Skenderbeu has beaten Andorran and Kazak sides to get here.
  • Inplay stats reveal all.

17:30 – Olimpik Donetsk v PAOK – 1.72 PAOK

  • Ukraine v Greece in this Europa League match
  • Olimpik are debutants in this competition.
  • PAOK are an experienced Europa League side.
  • Inplay stats will solve this with a slight nod to the Greeks.

17:30 – Trakai v Shkendija – 2.6 Shk

  • 2 names better served on a scrabble board and a market which cannot split these 2, in a competition as tough as the Europa League.
  • Inplay stats if I play at all.

17:45 – Maccabi Tel Aviv v Panionios – 1.57 Maccabi

  • 5 consecutive wins for Maccabi Tel Aviv and they only lost one in their recent Europa League matches.
  • Maccabi tend to score at home and scored 2+ in 8 of 9 home matches in this competition. As ever, it is hard to equate the teams they played as against today’s Greek opponents.
  • Panionios were last in the Europa League in 2007.
  • Faith in Maccabi’s solid 2 goals a game in the Europa League at home?

17:45 – AEK Larnaca v Dinamo Minsk – 1.66 AEK

  • Cyprus v Belarus
  • Gibraltar and Irish sides beaten so far this Europa League campaign for AEK
  • Faroe and Macedonian for Minsk.
  • Inplay stats for me

18:00 – AIK v Braga – 2.42 Braga

  • 4 consecutive clean sheets so far for AIK. They tend to do 0-0 away and clean sheet wins at home…..so far. The market expects a tougher encounter for this Swedish side v the Portugeuse.

18:00 – FK Suduva v Sion – 1.58 Sion

  • Lithuania v Switzerland
  • Sion seem to be in the Europa League yearly and meet some high profile sides such as Fenerbahce, Celtic, Bordeaux and Liverpool
  • It is this experience which suggests we side with the market today.

18:00 – Ostersunds FK v Fola Esch – 1.33 Ostersunds

  • Switzerland v Luxembourg
  • Ostersunds are new to the Europa League but started very well in dispatching Galatasary. They are worthy favourites against a side from a country with weak football pedigree.
  • Ostersunds took 68th and 90th minute to score v Galatasary. I do expect them to wear down Fola Esch.

18:00 – PSV v Osijek – 1.23 PSV

  • PSV were last in the Europa League in 2015 and failed to score in defeats to Dinamo Moscow, and Zenit
  • Osijek were last in the Europa League in 2012
  • So far this term,they have progressed past Andorran and Swiss teams,
  • There is a general feeling that the likes of Rijeka, Dinamo Zagreb and Osijek, whilst strong domestically, fall drastically short outside of Croatia.
  • We should expect a PSV side more used to the Champions League, to dominate and win today.

18:00 – Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce – 2.18 Fenerbahce

  • Austria v Turkey. Fenerbahce would prefer Champions League football I am sure.
  • Fenerbahce’s strengths lie at home, the beating of the likes of Man Utd ( a weakened Man Utd granted) attests to that.
  • Sturm Graz were last in the Europa League in 2015 and failed to win. They have an unenviable 7 match losing sequence at home, over the years, in this competition
  • In 6 of the last 7 away, Fenerbahce has scored at least one goal

18:00 – Utrecht v Lech Poznan – 1.97 Utrecht

  • Holland v Poland
  • Utrecht was last in the Europa League in 2013. Lech was last in the competition 2015
  • Very little to go on

18:30 – Astra Giurgiu v Oleksandria – 2.3 Astra

  • Romania v Ukraine here and 2 of the lesser lights in each league
  • This is Olek’s 2nd year . In 2016 HJK knocked them out with 2 wins.
  • Astra seem to have the greater experience in the Europa League, holding the likes of Roma to 0-0 at home. On that basis only, a tentative nod towards the home side.

 

18:30 -Bnei Yehuda v Zenit St Petersburg – 1.31 Zenit

  • I like Zenit St Petersburg as a trading vehicle, be in in the Russian Premier League or here in the Europa League.
  • Provided they are up for this competition, they really should have too much for this relatively unknown Israeli side, over 2 legs.
  • Bnei were last in this competition in 2012
  • Slight concern that Zenit lost to AZ and Anderlecht in this competition, teams from leagues I would have thought Zenit would be competitive with.
  • Zenit beat Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 last year. Something to gauge against another Israeli side?

 

18:30 -Botev Plovdiv v Maritimo – 2.48 Maritimo

18:30 -Dinamo Bucharest v Athletic Bilbao – 1.54 Ath

  • Dinamo were last in the Europa League in 2012. Ath Bilbao scored 5-3-1-3-0 recently in the Europa League albeit conceded 3-2-1-2-2 goals. This does hint to me at a second team put out by Bilbao.
  • As with Milan, we might see a first team treating this as something of a pre-season pipe-opener.
  • We should certainly see goals today as Bilbao look very attack minded. I would have to favour them on experience today.

19:00 – Arka Gdynia v FC Midtjylland – 1.91 FC

19:00 – Brondby v Hajduk Split – 1.96 Brondby

19:00 – CS Uni Craiova v AC Milan – 1.3 AC Milan

  • Romania v Italy and the only thing that will beat AC Milan over 2 legs is their actual desire to have a Europa League campaign. Top clubs tend to have a habit of playing peripheral players in this competition. Were they to play the First Team they would likely have a great chance of winning the competition. As Seria A is yet to start, we may see as near to a first team as possible for AC Milan today.
  • CS make their Europa League debut.

18:00 – FK Krasnodar v Lyngby – 1.29 FK

  • Russia v Denmark in this Europa League match.
  • Only 1 win in 8 Europa League matches for FK suggests they are limited. They played the likes of Schalke, Nice, Fenerbahce, and Celta.
  • Lyngby played Bangor City and Slovan Bratislava so far.
  • The Russian Season is just starting as is the Danish season. The market sides firmly with the Russians.

19:30 – Bordeaux v Videoton – 1.37 Bord

  • Bordeaux were last in the Europa League in 2015
  • Videoton are unbeaten in 5 matches getting past a Maltese and Croatian side. Bordeaux should be a step up.

19:30 – Crvena Zvezda v Sparta Prague – 2.44 Crvena

 

19:30 – Gent v SCR Altach – 1.43 Gent

  • Belgium v Austria in a battle of 2 peripheral European leagues.
  • gent are recently experienced in the Europa League  – total goals in matches last year? – 5-8-4-1-1-4-7-2
  • Gent scored and conceded in their last 2 Europa League matches
  • Gent scored in their last 7 home matches in the Europa League and in 6 of their last 7 matches, they scored 2 goals at least.
  • Altach are unreadable at the moment. Gent seem to have goals in them and I think they can react positively to going behind should that happen.

19:30 – Panathinaikos v FK Qabala – 1.52 Pana

  • Greece v Azerbaijan
  • No win in 7 Europa League matches for Pana saw them fail to score in 4 of 5. They played the likes of Celta, Ajax, and Standard Liege
  • Qabala beat a Polish side in their 2017 campaign.In 2016 they were, like Pana, out of their depth with 6 losses
  • These 2 will not be going far in the Europa League. Inplay stats will determine any play

19:45 – Aberdeen v Apollon Limassol – 2.16 Aberdeen

  • Aberdeen were undone by Maribor last year in the Europa League. So far they drew at home and won away v a Bosnian side.
  • Apollon beat a Moldovan side. Inplay stats again here.

19:45 – Dinamo Zagreb v Odds BK – 1.25 Dinamo

  • Dinamo Zagreb were last in the Europa League in 2014 where they lost to Celtic and Salzburg
  • That betrays poor relative form from the Croatians.
  • Odds are a Norwegian Eliteserien side.4 consecutive clean sheet wins so far this campaign v Ballymena United and Vaduz.
  • Little to work with bar the market and in-play stats. We know all about Dinamo Zagreb’s home record in the league. Will that give them a boost in the Europa League? The market thinks so.

19:45 – Marseille v Oostende – 1.34 Marseille

  • Oostende’s first venture into the Europa League.Marseille could not get past Atl Bilbao last year in this competition but are clearly the team from the better league.
  • Bar ring rustiness we should expect a home win today. Oostende do present an element of the unknown though.

20:05 – Austria Vienna v A.E.L. – 1.6 Austria

  • Austria Vienna scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 Europa League matches
  • They played Plzen and Roma last year and got little out of it.
  • No Europa League for A.E.L since 2014. Wins this year v St Joseph’s and Progres
  • Austria Vienna has met the classier opponents this Europa League ( accounting for weaker sides put out by the likes of Roma).
  • They may score and concede so lay A.E.L if A.E.L scores first

20:05 – Everton v Ruzomberok – 1.12 Everton

  • Everton rewarded for a great domestic season with this Europa League berth. They take on a Slovakian side.
  • Everton were last in the Europa League in 2015 where they scored and conceded in 4 consecutive matches, winning 3. I seem to remember that a less than first team squad was sent out for those matches.
  • Everton are by far and away the highest level team Ruz has met on their Europa League adventures.
  • Minus Romelu Lukaku, where are the goals going to come? The market expects 3/4 minimum

20:05 – Freiburg v Domzale – 1.26 Freiburg

  • Germany v Slovenia in this first round Europa League match
  • Freiburg were last in the Europa League in 2013.
  • The highlight for Domzale last year was beating West Ham at home. They beat Flora and Valur so far this Europa League campaign home and away
  • Little to work with for the home side bar the market which expects a comfortable home win

TENNIS

ATP Hamburg – clay

Benoit Paire v Nicolas Kicker – 1.52 Paire

  • ‘ooh what a lovely’ Paire has tended to be reliable for trading when favourite
  • 49th v 95th
  • Paire’s last 4 clay court events saw him out in the first round.Not since Casablanca has he gone deep into a tournament
  • Kicker has been plying his trade mostly in clay, even in the grass court season.Quarter finalist in Lyon beating some eyecatching names, he lost to 1.17 shot Foggy recently in 3 sets.
  • We might see Kicker be competitive here. I would , and I stress the word, speculatively lay Paire if he wins first set. He may not be ‘ooh what a lovely’ Paire on Clay

Federico Delbonis v David Ferrer – 1.54 Ferrer

  • like Wozniacki I do tend to gravitate to a David Ferrer match particularly when he is favourite. What you get ALL the time is 100%
  • 98th v 32nd. Yes Ferrer has been top 10 and his rankings are tanking but he is 3-0 in head to heads and won this year in bastad on clay
  • He actually won the final in Bastad so on that basis alone, I am with Ferrer here and would happily back him at 1.8 or higher for trading purposes

Karen Khachanov v Aljaz Bedene – 1.76 Karen

  • little really to gain from Karen and Bedene’s wins. Both around 1.1 shots.
  • 56th v 68th
  • As you know, I like Karen , the man with the woman’s name. He is a fighter.
  • Bedene is an up and coming Brit.
  • Karen has won in 2016 in 3 setters and the odds suggest a 3 setter today. It does have the feel of a ‘lay the first set winner’ match
  • Indeed looking at these 2’s recent matches, it suggests that they tend not to win 2-0.

Horacio Zeballos v Jiri Vesely – 1.56 Vesely

Philipp Kohlschreiber v Gilles Simon – 1.47 Kohl

  • a german in Germany and time and again we see this ‘Heather’ factor.
  • 31st v 30th. The rankings could not be tighter.
  • Last head to head was in Tokyo and Simon ended a 2-0 Kohl run.Kohl won here in Hamburg last year in 2 sets

Leonardo Mayer v Jan-Lennard Struff – 1.74 Struff


ATP Gstaad – clay

Paolo Lorenzi v Ernests Gulbis – 1.76 Gulbis

Norbert Gombos v Fabio Fognini – 1.28 Foggy

  • 105th v 29th
  • no head to heads

Feliciano Lopez v Yannick Hanfmann – 1.48 Lopez

  • a real pity Lopez retired first round at Wimbledon because, like Gilles Muller, this guy is a class act on grass.
  • 40th v 262nd
  • no head to heads
  • Winner in Gstaad last year, if Lopez is recovered ( he has played no tennis since the retirement) then he will be competitive.
  • It takes a big name to beat Lopez on clay.
  • Potential injury niggle clouds the match

 

Henri Laaksonen
Joao Sousa
£3,602

2.36
£3

2.42
£56

1.71
£53

1.73
£4
View all ATP Gstaad 2017